Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo: Key Late-Season La Liga Clash

San Mamés stages a fascinating late-season La Liga clash on 17 May 2026, as 9th-placed Athletic Club host 6th-placed Celta Vigo in Round 37. With Celta currently sitting in the Europa League positions and Athletic still chasing a top-half finish and pride in front of their own fans, the stakes are high even without direct 1/4 final implications.

Both sides arrive with contrasting league trajectories. In the league, Athletic are 9th on 44 points with a negative goal difference of -13 (40 scored, 53 conceded), while Celta are 6th on 50 points and +4 goal difference (51 scored, 47 conceded). A six-point gap with two games to play keeps Celta’s European ambitions very much alive, while Athletic will see this as a chance to strike a blow against a side above them and to repair a patchy campaign.

Form and context

Across all phases, Athletic’s season has been erratic. Their overall form string reads “WWWLLDLWDLLWLWLWLLDLLDWWWDLLWLLWLWLL” and their current league form is “LLWLW” – three defeats in their last five in La Liga, punctuated by two wins. At San Mamés they have been much stronger than away: 9 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses from 18 home matches, scoring 21 and conceding 20. They are hard to beat in Bilbao, but not impregnable.

Celta’s story is almost the inverse. In the league, they are riding a more positive season overall, and their form line “LWWLL” suggests volatility but also a capacity to put wins together at key moments. Across all phases, they have been consistent: 13 wins, 11 draws and only 12 defeats from 36 matches. Crucially, they are one of La Liga’s better away sides this season: 8 wins, 6 draws and just 4 losses on the road, with 23 goals scored and only 19 conceded.

That away resilience against Athletic’s home strength sets up a finely balanced tactical duel.

Tactical outlook: styles and structures

The data paints a clear picture of how each coach has approached the season.

Athletic are heavily wedded to a back-four system. Across all phases they have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 in 35 of 36 league matches, with only a single outing in a 4-1-4-1. That suggests a stable double pivot, a central No.10 and wide forwards working off a lone striker. The structure is designed to give them control between the lines at home, but the numbers hint at a side that often struggles to convert territory into goals: just 1.2 goals per game at home and 13 matches in which they have failed to score.

Defensively, Athletic concede 1.1 goals per game at San Mamés and 1.5 overall. They have kept 4 clean sheets at home (6 total), but the negative goal difference underlines that when they lose control of games, they can be punished. Their biggest home defeat of the season was 0-3, showing that heavy losses are possible if the balance tips.

Celta, by contrast, are much more flexible in shape but committed to a three-at-the-back base. They have used a 3-4-3 in 26 matches and a 3-4-2-1 in 8, with only isolated uses of 4-3-3 and 4-4-2. That points to a wing-back system, with width provided from deep and multiple central lanes for attackers like Borja Iglesias. They average 1.3 goals per game away and concede only 1.1 – a tight, controlled profile that travels well.

Celta’s clean-sheet record away (6 shutouts) and just 3 away matches without scoring indicate a side that is usually competitive in both boxes on their travels. Their biggest away win is 0-2, and their heaviest away defeat is 3-1, suggesting they rarely collapse.

Discipline could also shape the rhythm. Athletic’s yellow-card distribution spikes between 46-75 minutes, with 31 yellows in that 30-minute window and several reds across the season, including in the 46-75 and 91-105 ranges. Celta also see many yellows after half-time, particularly between 46-90 minutes. A physical, stop-start second half is a real possibility.

Key absences and selection puzzles

Athletic face significant selection problems in key areas.

Confirmed absentees:

• O. Sancet (Muscle Injury)
• D. Vivian (Ankle Injury)
• N. Williams (Injury)

Questionable:

• Y. Berchiche (Leg Injury)
• B. Prados Diaz (Knee Injury)

Sancet’s absence deprives the 4-2-3-1 of a creative hub in the No.10 space, while N. Williams is a major loss in terms of pace and direct threat from wide areas. Vivian’s injury weakens the central defensive options, and if Berchiche does not make it, Athletic could be forced into a makeshift left-back solution. That combination may reduce Athletic’s ability to press high and transition quickly, potentially forcing them into a more patient, possession-heavy approach without their usual vertical outlets.

Celta are also without important pieces at the back and in midfield.

Confirmed absentees:

• M. Roman (Foot Injury)
• C. Starfelt (Back Injury)

Questionable:

• I. Moriba (Knee Injury)
• M. Vecino (Muscle Injury)

Starfelt’s absence is particularly notable for a team that leans on a back three; reshuffling the defensive line or changing shape is likely. If both Moriba and Vecino are unavailable or not fully fit, Celta may have to tweak the midfield balance, perhaps sacrificing some physicality for more technical profiles. That could affect their ability to control transitions against Athletic’s attacking midfielders.

Head-to-head: recent competitive history

The last five competitive meetings, all in La Liga, show a slight edge for Athletic but with both sides taking turns to strike.

From the five most recent league clashes:

• Athletic wins: 3
• Celta wins: 2
• Draws: 0

Match by match:

1. 14 December 2025, Estadio Abanca Balaídos: Celta Vigo 2-0 Athletic Club – Celta win.
2. 19 January 2025, Estadio Abanca-Balaídos: Celta Vigo 1-2 Athletic Club – Athletic win.
3. 22 September 2024, San Mamés Barria: Athletic Club 3-1 Celta Vigo – Athletic win.
4. 15 May 2024, Estadio Abanca-Balaídos: Celta Vigo 2-1 Athletic Club – Celta win.
5. 10 November 2023, San Mamés Barria: Athletic Club 4-3 Celta Vigo – Athletic win.

Notably, Athletic have won both of the last two meetings in Bilbao (3-1 and 4-3), underlining the San Mamés factor, while Celta’s most recent encounter in December 2025 ended in a solid 2-0 home victory for the Galicians.

Key player focus

Celta’s attacking spearhead is Borja Iglesias, one of La Liga’s most productive forwards this season. He has:

• 14 league goals and 2 assists
• 33 appearances (19 starts), 1,770 minutes
• 38 shots, 26 on target
• 17 key passes and 433 total passes at 73% accuracy

He is also reliable from the spot, with 4 penalties scored and none missed this season. In a team that often plays with two or three forwards in a 3-4-3 or 3-4-2-1, his penalty-box presence and movement between centre-backs will be a major concern for an Athletic defence missing Vivian.

For Athletic, the lack of detailed individual stats in the data makes it harder to isolate one standout, but structurally their threat will have to come from the central striker supported by the “3” behind in the 4-2-3-1, with full-backs encouraged to overlap. Without N. Williams and Sancet, more responsibility will fall on other wide and central attacking midfielders to create overloads and win fouls around the box.

Penalties and fine margins

Both teams are flawless from the spot in league play this season according to team-level data:

• Athletic: 5 penalties, 5 scored, 0 missed.
• Celta: 8 penalties, 8 scored, 0 missed.

With Borja Iglesias personally 4/4 on penalties, any spot-kick awarded could be decisive, especially in a tight, late-season encounter where nerves and fatigue play a role.

The verdict

On paper, Celta arrive as the more complete side: higher in the table, better goal difference, and one of the league’s strongest away records. Their 3-4-3/3-4-2-1 structure, combined with Borja Iglesias’ form, gives them a clear attacking focal point and a solid defensive platform.

However, San Mamés remains a difficult place to go, and Athletic’s 9 home wins and positive home goal difference (+1) show they are a different proposition in Bilbao. The Basques also have recent home H2H results on their side, with back-to-back league wins over Celta at San Mamés.

Injuries tilt the balance slightly towards Celta, particularly with Athletic missing Sancet, N. Williams and Vivian. If Celta can exploit the reshuffled Athletic defence and maintain their usual away solidity, they have a strong chance of taking at least a point – and perhaps edging a narrow win.

Yet given Athletic’s home resilience, emotional backing at San Mamés and their own perfect penalty record, this fixture shapes up as a finely poised contest. A tight, tactical match with few clear chances and a one-goal margin either way, or even a draw, looks the most logical expectation.