Kylian Mbappé vs Lionel Messi: The Ballon d'Or Debate

Kylian Mbappé went to North America hunting a crown and came back with questions. Eight goals, a semi-final run, long stretches where he looked unstoppable – it all felt like the tournament that would drag him properly into the Ballon d’Or fight.

Then Spain happened. Then Real Madrid’s season happened.

A second straight year in white without a major trophy, a World Cup dream cut short in the last four, and suddenly the narrative around the Frenchman has shifted. His brilliance is not in doubt; his trophy cabinet, this year at least, is.

And that is where Lionel Messi walks back into the room.

Messi, again, at the centre of it all

At 39, Messi should be a nostalgic subplot. Instead, he is once more the central character in football’s biggest individual debate.

He has led Argentina to yet another World Cup final, scoring eight times along the way, dictating games with the same calm cruelty that has defined his career. The Albiceleste are one win from defending the title they lifted in Qatar 2022. One more performance, one more night where he bends a match to his will against Spain, and a ninth Ballon d’Or suddenly feels less like fantasy and more like routine.

Jeremie Aliadière, watching this landscape unfold, sees the direction of travel clearly. Speaking to GOAL, the former France international did not dress it up when asked whether Mbappé’s wait for a first Ballon d’Or is likely to continue.

“Yeah, I think so,” he said. If Mbappé had paired his staggering numbers with silverware at Real Madrid, the conversation might be different. But he didn’t.

Aliadière pointed to a season where Mbappé “scored a ridiculous amount of goals and carried the team for most part of the season”. On an individual level, the campaign was elite. On a collective level, it fell short. And in the Ballon d’Or race, the rules have never really changed.

• You win the Champions League.
• You win the World Cup.
• You win the Euros.

Or someone else walks away with the golden ball.

By that measure, Mbappé is exposed. Harry Kane, too. Aliadière admitted he felt the England captain had “a good shot” if his country had gone all the way. They didn’t. The door slammed shut on him as well.

“I think it’ll probably be one of Argentina,” Aliadière added. If Messi lifts the World Cup again, the reaction will be predictable and still staggering: awe at his age, awe at his output, and a willingness to overlook the fact that he spends his club season in MLS with Inter Miami.

MLS stage, same old Messi

That MLS detail, though, is not a footnote. It is part of the story of why this version of Messi is so jarring.

The 2025 campaign in North America ended with him clutching the MLS Cup and the league’s MVP award. He did not just drop in for cameos; he dominated the competition. He turned Inter Miami into a trophy-winning side and then flew off to join Argentina, where the stakes and the pressure spike to another level – and the standards stayed the same.

In Atlanta, England felt that first-hand. A dramatic semi-final, a night dripping with tension, and Messi once again at the heart of the decisive moments as Argentina pushed through. Another World Cup final. Another shot at the Golden Ball on the biggest stage. Another Ballon d’Or very much in play.

Former Brazil midfielder and World Cup winner Kleberson has watched it all with the perspective of someone who knows what a champion looks like. Asked by GOAL if Messi can claim yet another Ballon d’Or and move four clear of Cristiano Ronaldo, his reaction summed up the disbelief that still surrounds the Argentine’s longevity.

“Wow! That guy never stops!” he said.

Kleberson sees a simple equation. With Messi, Argentina have a greater chance of winning the World Cup than anyone else, because Messi is still operating at a genuinely high level. Ronaldo, he noted, remains a big name and a big presence, but the supporting cast around him is not what Messi enjoys with Argentina.

“It’s purity,” Kleberson said of the Albiceleste’s structure around their No.10. The difference, in his eyes, lies in the profiles and chemistry of the Portuguese and Argentine squads. That gap, he believes, gives Messi “a lot of chance” in both the World Cup and the Ballon d’Or stakes.

His verdict is blunt: if Messi wins the World Cup again, he is “100 per cent” in the frame to win the Ballon d’Or again. No caveats. No sentimental allowances. Just performance and trophies.

“He’s brilliant,” Kleberson added, making a point that cuts across old rivalries. Even in Brazil, he said, players and fans want to see great footballers rewarded with the World Cup and the Ballon d’Or – the ones “that are a joy to see play”. For him, Messi still sits firmly in that category.

Mbappé’s numbers, Messi’s moment

Strip this debate down to numbers and Mbappé’s case remains strong. Goals, influence, the sense that every attack flows through him – all of it stands up to scrutiny. Aliadière called his season “fantastic” on a personal level, and few would argue.

But the Ballon d’Or rarely bows to pure individualism. It has always leaned towards those who turned brilliance into banners and parades. Mbappé’s eight goals in North America came without the final act. His club season, again, ended without the Champions League trophy he craves.

Messi, by contrast, has stacked the deck in his favour. Domestic success in MLS. MVP status. Another World Cup final with Argentina. Eight goals on the road to it. A body of work that, when placed in front of voters, tells a familiar story: when the lights are brightest, he is still there.

So the conversation that many thought would finally swing decisively towards Mbappé has, instead, circled back to the same name that has dominated it for nearly two decades.

If Messi walks off with a ninth Ballon d’Or, the question will not be how he keeps doing it. The real question will be how long players like Mbappé are prepared to wait before they finally wrench that golden ball from his grasp.