New York City II vs FC Cincinnati II: Match Preview and Prediction

New York City II host FC Cincinnati II at Belson Stadium in MLS Next Pro group-stage action with both sides looking to stabilise inconsistent starts. Standings data shows New York City II on 12 points from 9 matches (4-0-5, goals 11-16, goal difference -5), while FC Cincinnati II sit on 9 points from 10 games (3-0-7, goals 12-19, goal difference -7). The table context and model probabilities clearly lean towards the hosts avoiding defeat, which is reflected in the official advice.

Form-wise, both teams are volatile, but New York City II have the slightly healthier profile. Their recent league form string is “LWLLWLWLW”, backed by a last-five run with 60% form, attacking index 63% and defensive index 44%. They have scored 10 and conceded 9 across those five, averaging 2.0 goals for and 1.8 against. At home they are strong in terms of results: 3 wins and 1 loss from 4, according to standings (5 goals scored, 8 conceded). They rarely keep things tight – no clean sheets and 17 goals conceded overall – but they do find the net regularly, with only 3 blanks in 9.

FC Cincinnati II show a more extreme split between home and away. Their league form string “LLLLWLWWLL” underlines how streaky they are. Overall they have 3 wins and 7 losses from 10, but all victories came at home. Away they are 0-0-5 with 2 goals scored and 12 conceded in the standings, confirming serious travel issues. The prediction model’s last-five metrics (form 40%, attack 56%, defence 31%) suggest they can create chances, yet defensively they are fragile, shipping 11 in their last five (2.2 per game). They have failed to score in 3 of 10 league matches, all on the road, and have not yet shown they can manage game states away from home.

Head-to-Head Data

Head-to-head data, all in MLS Next Pro, shows a competitive matchup with frequent goals and several penalty shootouts, but the pattern is nuanced. On 2026-04-13 at NKU Soccer Stadium, FC Cincinnati II beat New York City II 1-0 in regular time. On 2025-07-06 at the same venue, the sides drew 2-2 after 90 minutes before FC Cincinnati II won 5-4 on penalties. Earlier, on 2025-04-09 at Belson Stadium, New York City II came from behind to draw 2-2 in normal time, with FC Cincinnati II then winning 5-3 on penalties. At Belson Stadium on 2024-09-30, New York City II delivered a clear 3-1 home win. On 2024-07-07 at Northern Kentucky University Stadium, the match finished 1-1 after extra time, with New York City II taking the shootout 4-3. Going back further, on 2023-08-27 at TQL Stadium, FC Cincinnati II won 2-0 in regular time, while on 2023-05-28 at Belson Stadium at St John’s University, New York City II won 2-1. In 2022, FC Cincinnati II lost 4-0 at Northern Kentucky University Stadium on 2022-09-14, and 5-1 at Belson Stadium at St John’s University on 2022-07-02, both in favour of New York City II. Across these fixtures, New York City II have repeatedly produced strong attacking displays at home, while FC Cincinnati II’s better results have generally come in Cincinnati.

Prediction Model

The official prediction model is decisive: New York City II are tagged as the “winner” with a “Win or draw” comment, and the advised bet is “Double chance : New York City II or draw”. The implied probabilities are 45% home win, 45% draw and only 10% away win, with the comparison module giving the hosts an edge in form (60% vs 40%), attack (53% vs 47%) and defence (55% vs 45%). Poisson-based distribution also heavily favours the home side (79% vs 21%).

From a betting perspective, the clearest value-aligned angle is to follow the model and back New York City II on the double chance market (home or draw). FC Cincinnati II’s 0-0-5 away record with just 2 goals scored and 12 conceded makes an outright away win statistically unlikely, which matches the 10% model probability. The goals line in the prediction section flags both sides under 2.5 individually, which, combined with the high draw probability, suggests a relatively tight scoreline rather than a repeat of some of the high-scoring encounters of 2022–2025.