North Texas vs Los Angeles FC II Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

North Texas welcome Los Angeles FC II to Choctaw Stadium on 26 July 2026 in an MLS Next Pro Group Stage clash that could have major implications in both the Frontier and Pacific Division battles, as well as the wider Eastern Conference playoff picture. With both sides sitting in the mid-pack of their respective divisions but Los Angeles FC II currently inside the Eastern Conference playoff spots, this matchup carries extra weight.

North Texas come into this fixture 5th in the Frontier Division and 11th in the Eastern Conference on 25 points from 17 matches, with a positive goal difference of +6. Their season has been streaky, but a strong home attack at Choctaw Stadium has kept them in touch with the playoff race. Los Angeles FC II, meanwhile, are 3rd in the Pacific Division and 7th in the Eastern Conference with 29 points from 18 games and a -2 goal difference, currently in a promotion playoff position. This makes the North Texas vs Los Angeles FC II prediction particularly intriguing for bettors looking at MLS Next Pro betting tips and form angles.

Head-to-head history heavily favours North Texas, especially in high-scoring contests, but Los Angeles FC II’s overall points advantage and recent away struggles create a fascinating tactical contrast. With both teams averaging 1.7 goals scored per game this season, another open encounter at Choctaw Stadium looks likely.

North Texas vs Los Angeles FC II Key Stats

• North Texas sit 5th in the Frontier Division with 25 points from 17 matches, scoring 27 and conceding 21 in the standings.
• Across the last five meetings, North Texas have repeatedly dominated away to Los Angeles FC II, including a 4-0 win on 3 June 2024 at Titan Stadium.
• In 2026 tournament statistics, North Texas average 1.7 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, while Los Angeles FC II also average 1.7 scored but 1.9 conceded.

North Texas vs Los Angeles FC II — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 5 vs 3 (divisional ranks: North Texas in Frontier Division, Los Angeles FC II in Pacific Division)
• Points: 25 vs 29
• Goals For: 27 vs 28 (standings all-matches totals)
• Goals Against: 21 vs 30 (standings all-matches totals)
• Clean Sheets: North Texas 3 vs Los Angeles FC II 1 (tournament statistics)

In the standings, Los Angeles FC II have a slight edge in points with 29 from 18 games, compared to North Texas’ 25 from 17. However, North Texas boast the better goal difference (+6 vs -2) and a tighter defence, conceding just 21 goals to LAFC II’s 30 in the standings data. That defensive edge is reinforced by three clean sheets in 2026 tournament play for North Texas, versus just one for the visitors.

Los Angeles FC II’s profile is more volatile: they win more often at home (7 home wins from 10) but struggle away, losing 6 of 8 on the road and conceding 22 away goals in 2026 statistics. North Texas, by contrast, are strong at Choctaw Stadium, with 4 wins from 6 home league matches and 15 goals scored. The tale of the tape suggests a classic clash of a solid home side with a positive goal difference against an inconsistent but dangerous visitor.

North Texas vs Los Angeles FC II Key Matchups

North Texas attack vs Los Angeles FC II away defence

North Texas’ attacking unit has been particularly effective at home in 2026, averaging 2.7 goals per game at Choctaw Stadium in tournament statistics (16 home goals in 6 fixtures). Their biggest home win is a 5-1 scoreline, and they have only failed to score once at home all season. That free-scoring pattern will test a Los Angeles FC II away defence that concedes an average of 2.8 goals per match on the road (22 conceded in 8 away fixtures).

Los Angeles FC II’s biggest away defeat in 2026 is 4-1, underlining how quickly matches can get away from them. With North Texas capable of hitting four or five on their day and already having a 4-0 away win in this head-to-head series, the home forwards will feel confident of exploiting the visitors’ vulnerabilities, especially in the latter stages where LAFC II have conceded a significant share of their goals.

Penalty area discipline: North Texas vs Los Angeles FC II

Another key tactical battle lies in discipline around the box. North Texas have not been awarded or conceded any penalties in 2026 tournament statistics (0 taken, 0 scored, 0 missed), suggesting relatively few decisive incidents from the spot so far. Los Angeles FC II, in contrast, are heavily involved in penalty situations, with 16 penalties taken, 12 scored and 4 missed (75% conversion).

If Los Angeles FC II can force North Texas into rash challenges in and around the area, their penalty proficiency could become a major factor. However, North Texas’ clean sheet count (3) and a defensive average of just 1.4 goals conceded per game indicate a back line that usually stays organised. How well North Texas manage LAFC II’s penalty threat could swing tight betting markets on goals and results.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

This fixture has produced some memorable encounters in MLS Next Pro, with several high-scoring matches and a notable penalty shootout at Choctaw Stadium. Recent history shows North Texas thriving particularly when visiting Titan Stadium, while home meetings have been more balanced on the scoreboard.

• 5 October 2025: Los Angeles FC II 2-4 North Texas (MLS Next Pro)
• 25 August 2025: North Texas 0-4 Los Angeles FC II (MLS Next Pro)
• 3 June 2024: Los Angeles FC II 0-4 North Texas (MLS Next Pro)
• 3 July 2023: North Texas 2-2 Los Angeles FC II (MLS Next Pro, North Texas won 8-7 on penalties)
• 27 March 2023: Los Angeles FC II 0-1 North Texas (MLS Next Pro)

North Texas vs Los Angeles FC II Prediction

Stats suggest a finely poised contest with a strong lean towards the hosts avoiding defeat. The prediction model gives North Texas a 45% chance of victory, the draw also at 45%, and Los Angeles FC II just 10% for an away win. That aligns with the underlying numbers: North Texas are robust at home, scoring heavily and keeping three clean sheets in 2026 tournament play, while LAFC II’s away record is fragile with 6 defeats from 8 and 2.8 goals conceded per away game.

Head-to-head patterns add further weight to a North Texas-favoured outcome. They have recorded 4-0 and 4-0 wins away at Titan Stadium and edged the 2023 Choctaw Stadium clash on penalties after a 2-2 draw. While Los Angeles FC II did produce a 4-0 away win at Choctaw Stadium in August 2025, that looks more like an outlier against the broader trend of North Texas controlling this matchup.

Given the high goal averages on both sides (1.7 scored per game each in 2026) and LAFC II’s leaky away defence, a score draw or narrow home win looks the most likely scenario. With no precise goal-line prediction available from the model, a conservative forecast leans towards North Texas edging a tight, open game.

Predicted Score: North Texas 2-1 Los Angeles FC II

North Texas Recent Form

North Texas’ recent form is mixed but competitive. In the standings, their run of results is recorded as WLWLOL, reflecting a pattern of alternating wins and losses. Over 17 matches, they have 8 wins and 9 defeats with no draws, scoring 27 and conceding 21. In 2026 tournament statistics, their broader form string shows a streaky campaign, including both three-game winning and losing runs, underlining their high-variance profile.

Los Angeles FC II Recent Form

Los Angeles FC II’s recent form string in the standings is LLOLOWW, showing a poor spell followed by back-to-back wins. Across 18 matches they have 9 wins and 9 losses with no draws, scoring 28 and conceding 30 in the standings data. In extended 2026 tournament statistics, they have also posted both four-game winning streaks and three-game losing streaks, highlighting their inconsistency, particularly away from home.

North Texas Possible Starting Lineup

With no confirmed lineups available, a likely North Texas selection will draw from their core squad:

GK: E. Dymora or B. Thompson
Defenders: Alvaro Augusto, J. Biggar, Leandro, Z. Molomo, Enzo Newman, Slade Starnes
Midfielders: F. Aroyameh, I. Charles, D. García, N. James, M. Luccin, T. Ospina, Umberto Pela, C. Swann
Forwards: D. Baran, J. Contreras, B. Flowers, D. Kimbrough, Ricky Louis, E. Nys, C. Salazar, S. Sedeh, Nicholas Simmonds

North Texas have a deep pool of young attackers and versatile midfielders, which suits their high-scoring home profile. With multiple forwards available, they can set up in an aggressive shape, likely with one or two central strikers supported by wide forwards and advanced midfielders. Defensively, the presence of several specialist defenders allows for a back four that has already delivered three clean sheets in 2026 tournament statistics.

Los Angeles FC II Possible Starting Lineup

Los Angeles FC II also have a youthful and flexible roster:

GK: Cabral Carter or T. Hasal
Defenders: T. Babineau, C. Diaz, É. Díaz, L. Goodman, S. Minor-Kaplan, Kenny Nielsen, E. Ponciano, J. Santiago, G. Whitchurch
Midfielders: M. Evans, D. Guerra, L. Lambert, B. Moyado, Jude Terry, Lisandro Torres, E. Villeda, G. Zambrano
Forwards: M. Aiyenero, C. Kosakoff, J. Machuca, N. Mardaresco, Tommy Mihalic, Sebastian Nava, D. Resich, E. Rodriguez

Los Angeles FC II’s squad structure suggests plenty of attacking options, with several forwards and advanced midfielders capable of rotating across the front line. Their main tactical challenge will be tightening an away defence that concedes heavily; expect them to balance their offensive ambition with additional midfield cover. The presence of experienced attackers like Tommy Mihalic and Sebastian Nava provides cutting edge, especially in transition and penalty-box situations.

North Texas Team News

No significant absences reported.

Los Angeles FC II Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

North Texas:

• None reported.

Los Angeles FC II:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: North Texas vs Los Angeles FC II

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back North Texas Draw No Bet or double chance (North Texas or draw). The prediction model assigns 45% to a home win and 45% to a draw, with only 10% for an away victory. Combined with North Texas’ strong home scoring record and LAFC II’s 6 losses in 8 away matches in 2026 statistics, siding with the hosts not to lose looks the most logical result angle.
• Goals Tip: Over 2.5 goals. Both teams average 1.7 goals scored per match in 2026 tournament statistics, and Los Angeles FC II concede 1.9 per game overall, rising to 2.8 away. Recent head-to-heads have featured scorelines of 4-0, 4-2 and 2-2, underlining the potential for another open, high-scoring encounter.
• Value Tip: North Texas to score 2 or more goals. At home they average 2.7 goals per game in 2026, and they have already produced big wins such as 5-1. Against a Los Angeles FC II side that concede heavily on the road and have only one clean sheet in 2026 tournament statistics, backing the hosts to find the net multiple times offers attractive value.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.