The Town vs North Texas Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

The Town welcome North Texas to PayPal Park on 19 July 2026 in an intriguing MLS Next Pro Group Stage clash between two familiar rivals. The sides know each other extremely well from recent knockout and regular-season battles, and this latest meeting in San Jose arrives with both teams needing points to consolidate their positions in a tight conference picture.

The Town come into this fixture in strong shape, sitting 4th in the Pacific Division and 8th in the Eastern Conference overall with 28 points from 16 matches. Their attack has been one of the most productive in the competition, and home form at PayPal Park has underpinned their push towards the MLS Next Pro play-offs. North Texas, meanwhile, are 5th in the Frontier Division and 11th in the Eastern Conference on 22 points, still very much in the mix but under pressure to improve a patchy away record.

With The Town vs North Texas historically producing tight, hard-fought encounters and recent penalty shootouts adding extra spice, this Group Stage meeting looks set to be another key chapter in a growing MLS Next Pro rivalry.

The Town vs North Texas Key Stats

• The Town have 28 points from 16 matches with 37 goals scored and 19 conceded in the standings, reflecting one of the best goal differences (+18) in their conference.
• In the most recent meeting on 24 May 2026 at Choctaw Stadium, North Texas 2-2 The Town, The Town prevailed 4-2 on penalties after extra time.
• From tournament statistics, The Town average 2.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match across 16 fixtures, while North Texas average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.

The Town vs North Texas — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 4 vs 5 (divisional ranks: The Town in Pacific Division, North Texas in Frontier Division)
• Points: 28 vs 22
• Goals For: 37 vs 26
• Goals Against: 19 vs 21
• Clean Sheets: The Town 2 vs North Texas 2 (tournament statistics)

Across 16 matches, The Town have been the more convincing side in the standings. Their +18 goal difference is built on a prolific attack and a relatively solid defence, particularly at home where they have won 5 of 7, scoring 20 and conceding just 5. With no draws and a 9–7 win–loss record overall, their matches tend to be decisive and open.

North Texas sit six points back on 22, with a more modest +5 goal difference (26 scored, 21 conceded). They have been strong enough at home but fragile away: 3 wins and 7 losses from 10 road games, with 11 goals scored and 13 conceded. The numbers underline a clear edge for The Town, especially at PayPal Park, but North Texas’ goal output and clean-sheet count suggest they are capable of making this competitive if they tighten up defensively on their travels.

The Town vs North Texas Key Matchups

The Town attack vs North Texas defence

The Town’s attacking unit has been one of the most explosive in MLS Next Pro this year. Tournament statistics show they have scored 38 goals across 16 fixtures, with a particularly ruthless edge at PayPal Park where they average 2.9 goals per game (20 in 7 home matches). They also have the ability to rack up big wins, with a 6-1 home result and a 1-4 away success among their biggest victories.

North Texas’ defence will be under heavy pressure. They concede an average of 1.5 goals per match, with 15 conceded in 10 away games. Their biggest away defeats (2-0 and others by two goals) show that when they struggle, they can be shut out while still allowing multiple goals. The key battle will be whether North Texas can contain a Town side that creates chances consistently across all phases of the game, particularly in the 31–45 and 46–75 minute windows where The Town score a significant share of their goals.

North Texas front line vs The Town back line

On the flip side, North Texas are far from toothless. They have 28 goals in 16 matches, with an impressive 2.7 goals per game at home and a still-respectable 1.2 away. Their biggest wins include a 5-1 home victory and a 1-4 away success, underlining that they can punish teams when given space, especially in the final 15 minutes of each half where their scoring spikes.

The Town’s defence, however, has been strong, especially at PayPal Park. They concede just 0.7 goals per home game (5 in 7) and have kept 2 clean sheets overall in tournament statistics. Even away, they are not overly porous, and their biggest home defeat is only 0-1. This matchup suggests North Texas will need to be clinical with fewer chances than they might enjoy at Choctaw Stadium, as The Town rarely allow high-scoring opportunities on home soil.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These sides have built up a rich recent history in MLS Next Pro, including knockout ties and tense penalty shootouts. Matches are often tight, with several low-scoring encounters at PayPal Park contrasting with more open games in Texas.

• 24 May 2026: North Texas 2-2 The Town (MLS Next Pro, Group Stage – The Town won 4-2 on penalties)
• 20 October 2025: The Town 3-0 North Texas (MLS Next Pro, Round of 16)
• 24 April 2025: North Texas 2-0 The Town (MLS Next Pro, Regular Season - 8)
• 13 May 2024: The Town 1-0 North Texas (MLS Next Pro, Regular Season - 12)
• 6 April 2024: North Texas 1-1 The Town (MLS Next Pro, Regular Season - 5 – North Texas won 5-4 on penalties)

The Town vs North Texas Prediction

Stats suggest a finely balanced but home-leaning contest. The prediction model gives The Town a 45% chance of victory, with the draw also at 45% and North Texas at just 10%. That reflects The Town’s superior form, stronger underlying attacking numbers, and excellent home record, but also acknowledges how often this fixture has gone the distance or been decided by a single goal.

The comparison indices also tilt towards The Town: they lead in form, attack, defence, and overall metrics, while the Poisson index favours them strongly. At the same time, North Texas have recently pushed them to penalties and have the attacking tools to score, especially late in halves. Given The Town’s high-scoring home profile and North Texas’ mixed away defence, a narrow home win in a game with at least one goal for each side looks the most plausible outcome.

Predicted Score: The Town 2-1 North Texas

The Town Recent Form

In conference standings, The Town’s recent run is strong: they have won 9 of 16 matches with no draws, and their form line reads LWWLW. That sequence underlines a side that responds well to setbacks, stringing wins together and maintaining attacking momentum. Across their last five games in the prediction data, they have scored 14 and conceded 7, averaging 2.8 goals for and 1.4 against, which reinforces their status as one of the league’s most dangerous offensive outfits.

North Texas Recent Form

North Texas’ recent form has been far more erratic. Their standings form string is LWLOLLO, reflecting a run dominated by defeats with only occasional victories. Over their last five matches in the prediction data, they have scored 6 and conceded 8, averaging 1.2 goals for and 1.6 against. That pattern suggests they are competitive but often come up short in tight games, especially away from home where seven losses in ten underline their vulnerability.

The Town Possible Starting Lineup

GK: Francesco Montali or N. Crockford; Defenders: A. Cano, N. Dossmann, M. Floriani, Jack Jasinski, J. Heisner; Midfielders: N. Buck, G. Bracken Serra, N. Fernandez, E. Mendoza, Nikko Perez; Forwards: N. Adimabua, D. Baptista, J. Donnery, J. Spivey, S. de Flores.

The Town have a deep squad with multiple goalkeepers available, including Francesco Montali and N. Crockford, and a solid defensive group built around players like A. Cano and Jack Jasinski. In midfield, the likes of N. Buck and G. Bracken Serra provide energy and control, while a varied attacking unit featuring N. Adimabua, D. Baptista, and J. Spivey offers pace and finishing options. With no confirmed injuries listed, the coach should have flexibility to maintain the attacking approach that has brought such strong home returns.

North Texas Possible Starting Lineup

GK: B. Thompson or E. Dymora; Defenders: Alvaro Augusto, J. Biggar, Leandro, Enzo Newman, Slade Starnes; Midfielders: F. Aroyameh, N. James, M. Luccin, T. Ospina, Umberto Pela; Forwards: D. Baran, J. Contreras, E. Nys, Ricky Louis, Nicholas Simmonds.

North Texas also possess a youthful and dynamic squad. In goal, B. Thompson and E. Dymora are options, while the back line can be built around defenders such as Alvaro Augusto and Leandro. Midfield options like N. James, M. Luccin, and T. Ospina give them balance and technical quality, and in attack, players including D. Baran, J. Contreras, and E. Nys provide movement and goal threat. The challenge will be organising this group into a compact, disciplined shape away from home to contain The Town’s high-powered offence.

The Town Team News

No significant absences reported.

North Texas Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

The Town:

• None reported.

North Texas:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: The Town vs North Texas

Exactly 3 distinct betting ideas based on the available stats and probabilities:

• Result Tip: Back The Town in the 1X2 market. With a 45% win probability versus just 10% for North Texas and a strong home record (5 wins from 7, 20 goals scored), the hosts are the justified favourites. The high draw probability (45%) suggests some risk, but home advantage and better form make The Town the more reliable side.
• Goals Tip: Over 2.5 total goals. The Town’s matches average 2.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, while North Texas average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded. The Town’s home games in particular are high-scoring, and recent H2H clashes have produced 4, 3, and 2 goals in the last three meetings, pointing towards another game with at least three goals.
• Value Tip: Both Teams to Score – Yes. The Town are prolific at PayPal Park but do concede, especially later in matches, and North Texas have scored in most of their recent head-to-head visits, including the 2-2 draw in May 2026 and a 1-1 in April 2024. With North Texas averaging 1.8 goals per match overall, BTTS offers attractive value in a fixture where both attacks have a track record of delivering.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.