AC Milan vs Benfica Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

AC Milan open their UEFA Europa League League Stage campaign with a glamour tie against Benfica in Milan on 16 September 2026. With the venue listed in the city of Milan and both sides eyeing a deep run in Europe, this is one of the standout fixtures of the early matchday.

The standings table is still blank for both clubs in the 2026 Europa League, but expectations are very different. AC Milan are currently listed 23rd in the overall League Round ranking, projected towards the Play Offs zone, while Benfica sit as high as 4th, reflecting their strong recent continental form. For Milan, this is about laying down a marker at home; for Benfica, it is an opportunity to underline their status as early contenders.

From a betting perspective, this clash between AC Milan and Benfica is already attracting attention among Europa League prediction enthusiasts. Market odds make the Italians slight favourites at San Siro, but performance data and recent Europa League form point strongly towards the Portuguese side. That tension between numbers and narrative is what makes this fixture particularly intriguing for those looking at AC Milan vs Benfica betting tips.

AC Milan vs Benfica Key Stats

• AC Milan start the Europa League League Round with 0 matches played, 0 goals scored and 0 conceded, and are placed 23rd in the overall ranking.
• The last meeting between these sides on 28 July 2019 in the International Champions Cup ended AC Milan 0-1 Benfica at Gillette Stadium.
• Benfica have scored 19 goals and conceded just 6 across their 6 Europa League fixtures in 2026, averaging 3.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, with 4 wins from 6.

AC Milan vs Benfica — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 23 vs 4
• Points: 0 vs 0
• Goals For: 0 vs 0
• Goals Against: 0 vs 0
• Clean Sheets: AC Milan 0 (tournament statistics), Benfica 1 (tournament statistics)

Because this is the opening League Stage - 1 round, the raw standings numbers do not yet separate these two on points or goal difference. However, the ranking positions already hint at expectations: Benfica’s 4th place in the League Round reflects a side in strong Europa League rhythm, while AC Milan’s 23rd suggests they are coming in without recent continental data behind them.

Benfica’s Europa League statistics in 2026 are impressive: 4 wins, 1 draw and just 1 defeat from 6 matches, with a 6-1 home win and a 3-1 away victory among their biggest results. They have also failed to score in none of those games, underlining their attacking reliability. AC Milan, by contrast, have no recorded Europa League fixtures in this campaign yet, so their continental level is still an unknown going into this tie.

AC Milan vs Benfica Key Matchups

Gonçalo Ramos vs V. Pavlidis

With no Europa League top scorers from AC Milan listed so far, the focus for the hosts naturally falls on their central attacking options, and Gonçalo Ramos is the standout name in their squad. He will be tasked with matching the prolific output of Benfica’s Vangelis Pavlidis, who has been one of the competition’s most devastating forwards.

Pavlidis has 5 goals and 1 assist in just 3 Europa League appearances for Benfica in 2026, and also tops the assists and yellow cards charts for his club in this competition. That combination of end product and physical presence makes him a constant threat between the lines. If Milan’s back line, featuring defenders such as F. Tomori and M. Gabbia, cannot contain Pavlidis’ movement and finishing, Ramos and the Milan attack will be under huge pressure to keep up on the scoreboard.

C. Pulišić vs Rafa

Out wide and in the half-spaces, the duel between creative midfielders and wide forwards will be crucial. For AC Milan, Christian Pulišić is one of the most influential attacking midfielders in their squad, capable of driving the ball forward and linking with the front line. Benfica’s answer is Rafa, who has been a key supporting attacker in this Europa League run.

Rafa has contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in 4 appearances in the 2026 Europa League, underlining his importance as both scorer and creator. If he can find pockets of space behind Milan’s midfield, Benfica’s transitions will be extremely dangerous. Conversely, if Pulišić and the Milan midfield can pin Benfica back and deny service to Rafa and Pavlidis, the hosts can tilt the balance in their favour.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These two historic clubs have not met often in recent years, but their last encounter offers a small tactical reference point.

• 28 July 2019: AC Milan 0-1 Benfica (International Champions Cup)

AC Milan vs Benfica Prediction

All the available performance data points to Benfica arriving in far better competitive rhythm. Their Europa League record in 2026 reads 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 6 matches, with 19 goals scored and only 6 conceded. They are averaging 3.2 goals per game, with strong scoring in both halves and no matches without a goal. Their last-five form in all competitions, as summarised in the prediction data, shows 18 goals scored and just 4 conceded across 5 games.

AC Milan, on the other hand, have no recorded Europa League fixtures this season and no recent continental form string. At home in Milan they will still be dangerous, and the betting markets respect that: the match-winner odds range roughly from 2.05 to 2.14 on Milan, implying around a 46.7%–48.8% chance of a home win, while Benfica are out at about 3.20–3.49 (roughly 28.7%–31.3%), with the draw around 3.40–3.62 (27.6%–29.4%).

The prediction model, however, gives Benfica a 50% chance of victory, with 50% allocated to a draw and just 0% to a Milan win. That reflects Benfica’s outstanding Europa League form and attacking numbers. Taking both sets of information together, the most likely match flow is Benfica controlling large stretches of the game with their front line, while Milan rely on moments of quality from the likes of Pulišić and Gonçalo Ramos to stay in it.

Predicted Score: AC Milan 1-2 Benfica

AC Milan Recent Form

AC Milan enter this Europa League League Stage opener without any recorded matches in the competition for 2026. Their continental form is therefore unknown in statistical terms, and this fixture effectively serves as a fresh start on the European stage. How quickly they can adapt to the tempo and intensity of Europa League opposition like Benfica will be decisive.

Benfica Recent Form

Benfica’s Europa League form is excellent. Their league form string in this competition reads “LWWDWW”, indicating four wins, one draw and one defeat across 6 matches. In those games they have scored 19 goals and conceded only 6, with a 6-1 home victory and a 3-1 away win among their standout results.

They have kept 1 clean sheet in the tournament and have not failed to score in any of their 6 fixtures. Offensively they have been relentless, with goals spread across all phases of the match, and they have also converted all 4 of their penalties. That consistency makes them one of the form sides in the Europa League heading into this trip to Milan.

AC Milan Possible Starting Lineup

GK: M. Maignan
Defenders: F. Tomori, M. Gabbia, K. De Winter, D. Bartesaghi
Midfielders: R. Loftus-Cheek, Y. Musah, L. Modrić, C. Pulišić
Forwards: Gonçalo Ramos, S. Chukwueze

Milan have a deep and balanced squad with a strong spine. Mike Maignan in goal provides top-level shot-stopping, while Fikayo Tomori and Matteo Gabbia offer athleticism and aerial strength at the back. In midfield, the blend of experience from Luka Modrić and the power of Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Yunus Musah should help Milan compete against Benfica’s technically gifted central players. Up front, Gonçalo Ramos is a natural focal point, supported by the creativity and direct running of Christian Pulišić and Samuel Chukwueze. Without confirmed injuries, Stefano Pioli (or the current Milan coach) has the flexibility to adjust shape between a 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3 depending on Benfica’s setup.

Benfica Possible Starting Lineup

GK: A. Trubin
Defenders: A. Bah, C. Lenglet, Tomás Araújo, S. Dahl
Midfielders: João Palhinha, L. Barreiro, H. Sudakov, J. Kamiński
Forwards: Rafa, V. Pavlidis

Benfica’s likely XI is built around their Europa League stars. Anatoliy Trubin in goal anchors a back line featuring the left-footed C. Lenglet and Tomás Araújo, both of whom have already contributed goals in this competition. Alexander Bah offers width and an assist threat from right-back. In midfield, João Palhinha provides defensive steel, with Leandro Barreiro, Heorhii Sudakov and Jakub Kamiński all capable of contributing assists, as reflected in their Europa League stats. Up front, Rafa and Pavlidis form a lethal combination: Rafa with 2 goals and 1 assist, and Pavlidis with 5 goals and 1 assist. Benfica have also alternated between 4-2-3-1 and 4-1-3-2 formations, giving them tactical flexibility to press high or sit deeper and counter.

AC Milan Team News

No significant absences reported.

Benfica Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

AC Milan:

• None reported.

Benfica:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: AC Milan vs Benfica

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back Benfica Double Chance (Draw or Benfica). The prediction model gives Benfica a 50% chance of winning and a 50% chance of a draw, with 0% allocated to a Milan win. While bookmakers make Milan slight favourites at around 2.05–2.14, Benfica’s Europa League form of 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, plus 19 goals scored, suggests they are very unlikely to leave Milan empty-handed. Use the match-winner odds range of roughly 3.20–3.49 for Benfica and 3.40–3.62 for the draw as a guide to construct a conservative double-chance position.
• Goals Tip: Over 2.5 Goals. Benfica’s Europa League matches have been high scoring: they average 3.2 goals for and 1.0 against per game, with 4 of their 6 fixtures going over 2.5 goals. Their attack has scored in every match, and Milan’s attacking quality at home should contribute chances at both ends. With home odds around 2.10 and away around 3.20–3.49, the market expects a competitive game, which often correlates with open play and late chances.
• Value Tip: V. Pavlidis to Score Anytime. Pavlidis has 5 goals in 3 Europa League appearances and also leads Benfica in assists and yellow cards, indicating how central he is to their attacking play. Benfica have not failed to score in any of their 6 Europa League games. While specific goalscorer odds are not listed here, his scoring profile suggests that any price significantly above the implied 28.7%–31.3% away-win probability could offer value, especially with Benfica’s strong chance of getting on the scoresheet in Milan.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.