Anderlecht vs PAOK Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Anderlecht welcome PAOK to Lotto Park in Anderlecht on 13 August 2026 for the second leg of their UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. The Belgians hold a slender advantage after a 1-0 away win in Thessaloniki on 06 August 2026, and now have the chance to finish the job in front of their own fans.

With group-stage football the ultimate prize, this clash carries major sporting and financial significance for both clubs. Anderlecht come into the return leg unbeaten in Europa League action this season, while PAOK know they must score at least once on the road to keep their European campaign alive. Stats suggest a tight, tactical contest between two sides who have both shown solid defensive organisation and enough attacking punch to trouble each other.

Anderlecht vs PAOK Key Stats

• Anderlecht are unbeaten in Europa League 2026 so far, with 2 wins and 1 draw across 3 matches, scoring 5 and conceding just 2.
• The only previous meeting between these sides in this tie ended PAOK 0-1 Anderlecht on 06 August 2026 at Toumba Stadium.
• Across their 3 Europa League fixtures, Anderlecht have averaged 1.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match, while PAOK have averaged 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.

Anderlecht vs PAOK — Tale of the Tape

• Position: Not available vs Not available
• Points: Not available vs Not available
• Goals For: Not available vs Not available
• Goals Against: Not available vs Not available
• Clean Sheets: Anderlecht 1 (tournament statistics), PAOK 1 (tournament statistics)

Detailed group or league standings are not yet available for this qualifying phase, but the broader tournament statistics still tell a useful story. Anderlecht have played 3 Europa League matches in 2026, winning 2 and drawing 1, with 5 goals scored and only 2 conceded. They have yet to lose and have kept 1 clean sheet, underlining a solid start to their European campaign.

PAOK have also played 3 matches in this Europa League run, winning 2 and losing 1. They have matched Anderlecht’s 5 goals scored but have conceded 3, with 1 clean sheet and 1 match in which they failed to score. Both sides have shown they can win both home and away: Anderlecht’s biggest wins include 3-1 at home and 1-0 away, while PAOK’s standout results are 2-0 at home and a 3-2 away victory. The margins are fine, but Anderlecht’s slightly tighter defence could be decisive over two legs.

Anderlecht vs PAOK Key Matchups

Anderlecht attack vs PAOK defence

Without individual scorer data, the collective profiles become the key matchup. Anderlecht’s attack has produced 5 goals in 3 Europa League fixtures, with a notable spread across the 0–15 and 76–90 minute windows, where a significant share of their goals have arrived. Their average of 1.7 goals per game, combined with the fact they have not failed to score yet, points to a front line that finds ways to create chances across 90 minutes.

PAOK’s defence, meanwhile, has conceded 3 goals in 3 matches (1.0 per game) and kept 1 clean sheet. Most of their goals conceded have come early in halves, particularly in the opening 15 minutes and late in games, suggesting some vulnerability at the start and end of periods. The battle between Anderlecht’s late-game scoring threat and PAOK’s capacity to hold out under pressure will be central to the outcome.

PAOK attack vs Anderlecht defence

PAOK’s attack mirrors Anderlecht’s in output, with 5 goals in 3 matches and an average of 1.7 per game. They have shown the ability to score both at home and away, highlighted by a 3-goal haul in an away win. Their goals have been clustered between 31–60 minutes, indicating that they grow into games and can be dangerous once settled.

Anderlecht’s defence has been one of their strengths, conceding just 2 goals in 3 matches (0.7 per game) and keeping 1 clean sheet. A significant share of the goals they have conceded have come in the first and last 15 minutes of matches, so concentration at the start and end of halves will be critical. If Anderlecht can manage those phases better at Lotto Park, they are well placed to protect their aggregate lead.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

This tie is built around a fresh rivalry, with only one recent competitive meeting between the sides in this Europa League qualifying campaign. That first leg sets the tone for the second.

• 06 August 2026: PAOK 0-1 Anderlecht (UEFA Europa League)

Anderlecht vs PAOK Prediction

Stats suggest a finely balanced second leg. The prediction model gives Anderlecht a 45% chance of winning in 90 minutes, with the draw also rated at 45%, and PAOK at just 10%. That distribution reflects Anderlecht’s unbeaten run, their away win in Thessaloniki, and the advantage of playing the return leg at Lotto Park, but also acknowledges PAOK’s attacking potential and the likelihood of a tight contest.

Both teams average 1.7 goals scored per match in this Europa League campaign, while Anderlecht have the slightly better defensive record. The first leg finished 1-0, and under/over patterns show that for both teams, matches have more often stayed under 3.5 goals. With Anderlecht needing primarily to manage the game and PAOK forced to chase at least one goal, the flow could see the hosts controlling possession and looking to exploit spaces on the break, while PAOK push more aggressively after half-time.

Predicted Score: Anderlecht 1-1 PAOK

Anderlecht Recent Form

In Europa League 2026, Anderlecht’s recent form reads DWW. Across these 3 matches they have taken 7 points from a possible 9, scored 5 goals (1.7 per game) and conceded just 2 (0.7 per game). Their biggest win so far is 3-1 at home, and they have yet to lose or fail to score. That combination of resilience and consistent scoring underpins their status as favourites to progress.

PAOK Recent Form

PAOK’s Europa League form line is WWL. They opened this campaign strongly with two straight wins, including a 3-2 away victory and a 2-0 home success, before the 0-1 home defeat to Anderlecht in the first leg of this tie. Over 3 matches they have scored 5 goals and conceded 3, with one clean sheet and one match where they failed to score. The recent loss adds pressure, but their previous results show they are capable of turning a tie around away from home.

Anderlecht Possible Starting Lineup

Key available players (by position):
Goalkeepers: C. Coosemans, J. Heekeren, M. Seghers
Defenders: L. Augustinsson, G. Biancone, L. Hey, Z. Keita, M. N'Diaye, L. Pétrot, K. Sardella, B. Vroninks, A. de Ridder, M. Kana, A. Maamar
Midfielders: L. Ambros, I. Camara, N. Kalonji Kafumpata, E. Llansana, N. Saliba, M. Stroeykens, O. Antman, T. Degreef, C. Huerta, Jayden Onia Seke, K. Nga
Forwards: A. Bertaccini, M. Cvetkovic, E. Dao, N. Cobiella, D. Sikan

Anderlecht have alternated between 4-4-2 and 4-3-3 across their 3 Europa League matches, suggesting tactical flexibility. With no confirmed injury absences listed, the coach has a deep squad to rotate, particularly in defence and midfield. Expect a balanced shape designed to protect the aggregate lead while still offering width and pace in transition, with players like O. Antman and M. Stroeykens potentially key in linking midfield to attack.

PAOK Possible Starting Lineup

Key available players (by position):
Goalkeepers: D. Monastirlis, Vasileios Nikolakoulis, J. Pavlenka, A. Tsiftsis
Defenders: A. Baba, D. Bataoulas, Elustondo, P. Hatzidiakos, J. Gómez, J. Kenny, G. Kosidis, D. Kottas, L. Lyratzis, G. Michailidis, G. Sideras, G. Taylor, K. Thymianis
Midfielders: M. Camara, K. Despodov, G. Konstantelias, S. Meïté, D. Pelkas, B. Santamaría, Taison, D. Tsopouroglou, C. Zafeiris, A. Živković, D. Chatsidis
Forwards: T. Ali, M. Balde, D. Berdos, B. Dunga, A. Jeremejeff, A. Mythou

PAOK have consistently used a 4-2-3-1 setup in all 3 Europa League matches, which should continue here as they seek a balance between attacking intent and defensive stability. With experienced names like J. Pavlenka, A. Baba, S. Meïté, D. Pelkas, Taison and A. Živković, they have the quality to control phases of the game and create chances. Expect an aggressive posture from the double pivot and attacking midfield line as they chase the deficit.

Anderlecht Team News

No significant absences reported.

PAOK Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Anderlecht:

• None reported.

PAOK:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Anderlecht vs PAOK

Exactly 3 distinct betting ideas based on current stats and market prices:

• Result Tip: Double chance Anderlecht or Draw. The prediction model rates Anderlecht at 45% and the draw also at 45%, with PAOK only 10%. The 1x2 market has Anderlecht at 2.80–2.94 (implied probability roughly 34.0%–35.7%), the draw at 3.00–3.15 (31.7%–33.3%), and PAOK at 2.55–2.68 (37.3%–39.2%). The market leans slightly towards PAOK, but Anderlecht’s unbeaten form and first-leg win make the home side plus draw a solid safety play.
• Goals Tip: Under 3.5 total goals. Both teams average 1.7 goals scored per game, but Anderlecht concede only 0.7 and PAOK 1.0. The first leg finished 1-0, and under/over data shows that all three Anderlecht matches have stayed under 3.5 goals, as have all of PAOK’s. With knockout tension and Anderlecht defending a lead, a relatively low-scoring game is more likely. Look for an Under 3.5 line at moderate odds where available.
• Value Tip: Draw in the match result market. The draw is priced between 3.00 and 3.15, implying roughly 31.7%–33.3% probability, while the prediction model gives the stalemate a 45% chance. With Anderlecht able to progress even with a draw and PAOK needing to attack but facing a solid defence, a level scoreline after 90 minutes is plausible and potentially offers value compared to the implied market probability.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.