Burnley vs Wolves: Premier League Showdown at Turf Moor

Burnley and Wolves meet at Turf Moor on 24 May 2026 in a high‑stakes final Premier League round, with both already in the relegation places. Burnley sit 19th on 21 points (4‑9‑24, 37‑74 goal record), Wolves 20th on 19 points (3‑10‑24, 26‑67). Pride, prize money and momentum for the Championship are the key drivers here rather than survival.

Over the full league campaign, Burnley have been slightly better overall, but only marginally. At home they have 2 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses from 18, scoring 17 and conceding 28. Wolves’ away record is worse: 0 wins, 5 draws and 13 defeats, with just 7 goals scored and 33 conceded. That is a very weak attacking return (0.4 away goals per game) and underpins why the prediction model still only gives them a 45% win probability, equal to the draw and well above Burnley’s 10%.

Recent form data from the prediction feed paints a clearer picture of the last block of matches. In their last five, Burnley’s “form” index is 7%, with 4 goals scored (0.8 per game) and 11 conceded (2.2 per game). Wolves are slightly better on the defensive side: their last‑five form is 13%, scoring 2 (0.4 per game) and conceding 9 (1.8 per game). Neither side is playing well, but Wolves are marginally more solid at the back, while Burnley are at least creating a little more.

The model’s comparison section is important for betting: form favours Wolves 67% vs 33%, defence 55% vs 45%, while attack leans to Burnley 67% vs 33%. Overall comparison gives Wolves a 54.2% edge versus 45.8% for Burnley. The Poisson‑based distribution interestingly leans 70% to the home side and 30% to the away, but the headline prediction still makes Wolves the “winner” in a win‑or‑draw sense, not as a clear away win.

Head-to-Head Data

Head‑to‑head data confirms how tight this fixture can be. In the Premier League on 2025‑10‑26 at Molineux Stadium, Wolves lost 2‑3 at home to Burnley after a 2‑2 half‑time scoreline. Earlier, on 2024‑04‑02 at Turf Moor in the Premier League, the sides drew 1‑1. On 2023‑12‑05 at Molineux in the Premier League, Wolves won 1‑0. Going further back in league play, on 2022‑04‑24 at Turf Moor Burnley won 1‑0, and on 2021‑12‑01 at Molineux they drew 0‑0. On 2021‑04‑25 at Molineux, Burnley won 4‑0, while on 2020‑12‑21 at Turf Moor Burnley beat Wolves 2‑1, and on 2020‑07‑15, also at Turf Moor, they drew 1‑1. In cup competition, on 2024‑08‑28 in the League Cup at Molineux, Wolves beat Burnley 2‑0. There is also a 3‑0 Wolves win in a club friendly on 2022‑07‑09 at Sir Jack Hayward Training Ground, but that is less relevant for competitive betting context.

The official prediction engine assigns probabilities of 10% home, 45% draw, 45% away, and its explicit advice is “Double chance : draw or Wolves”. That aligns with the structural data: Burnley’s slightly better season‑long numbers are offset by Wolves’ stronger comparative form and defensive metrics, plus Burnley’s poor recent trend (7% form, 11 conceded in five).

Market prices are broadly in line with that view but leave some room for angle‑finding. Across major books, Burnley are roughly 2.40–2.56, the draw 3.18–3.66, and Wolves 2.60–2.84. The odds imply a relatively even three‑way market, but the model’s 10/45/45 split suggests the home win is meaningfully less likely than the prices for Burnley might indicate.

Betting Verdict

Betting verdict, anchored strictly to the official advice: the value‑aligned and model‑consistent play is on Wolves not to lose. The recommended bet is:

• Main pick: Double chance – Draw or Wolves.

Given both attacks’ low output (Burnley 37 goals in 37, Wolves 26 in 37, and both under 1 goal per game in recent form), a low‑scoring, cagey contest is also likely, but the core, data‑backed position remains to side with Wolves on the double‑chance rather than taking a stand on the outright result.