CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

CF Pachuca welcome Guadalajara Chivas to Estadio Miguel Hidalgo on 29 August 2026 in Liga MX Apertura - 6, with the hosts desperate to kick-start their campaign and the visitors looking to consolidate a strong start. Pachuca sit 14th after five games, while Chivas are already up in 4th, eyeing the upper reaches of the table.

Pachuca have collected just 4 points from a possible 15, with a negative recent run undermining their ambitions. Guadalajara, by contrast, have taken 10 points from their first five matches and are currently tracking towards the Apertura play-offs. With Chivas in good form and boasting a dominant recent record in this fixture, this clash at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo shapes as a key early-season test for both sides.

For betting-focused fans and those searching for CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction, H2H stats, and betting tips, this matchup offers a fascinating contrast: Pachuca’s attacking talent led by S. Rondón against a Chivas side that has been more balanced and efficient at both ends so far.

CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas Key Stats

• CF Pachuca are 14th in Liga MX Apertura with 4 points from 5 matches (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses, goal difference 7-7).
• Guadalajara Chivas have won the last four Liga MX meetings against Pachuca (from 19 October 2024 to 10 January 2026), including two victories at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo.
• Pachuca average 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match this Apertura, while Chivas average 1.6 scored and 1.0 conceded over their 5 fixtures.

CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 14 vs 4
• Points: 4 vs 10
• Goals For: 7 vs 8
• Goals Against: 7 vs 5
• Clean Sheets: Pachuca 1 vs Guadalajara Chivas 2 (season statistics)

After five rounds, the standings underline how differently these sides have started. Pachuca’s 14th place reflects just one win and a negative trend in results, despite an even goal difference. Their attack has produced 7 goals, but defensive lapses — especially at home, where they have conceded 5 in just 2 matches — have cost them points.

Chivas, 4th with 10 points, have been more consistent. They have scored 8 and conceded only 5, with a solid away record so far: 1 win and 1 draw on the road, and just 1 goal conceded in those 2 away games. With two clean sheets overall, Guadalajara look more stable defensively and are already positioned in the play-off spots.

CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas Key Matchups

S. Rondón vs R. Alvarado

CF Pachuca’s main attacking threat is S. Rondón. The 36-year-old attacker has 5 goals in 5 appearances this Apertura, starting all five matches and logging 403 minutes. He averages 3 shots per game (15 total, 6 on target) and has also converted 1 penalty, underlining his status as the focal point of Pachuca’s attack. His rating of 7.52 and 5 key passes show he is not only a finisher but also involved in link-up play.

For Guadalajara Chivas, R. Alvarado is the standout offensive figure. The 27-year-old has 2 goals in 5 starts (360 minutes) but contributes heavily in build-up: 225 passes with 11 key passes and an impressive 89% accuracy. His 7.93 rating is higher than Rondón’s, reflecting his all-round influence. With 7 shots (5 on target) and strong duel numbers (45 total duels, 26 won), Alvarado is a constant danger between the lines. The duel between Rondón’s penalty-box presence and Alvarado’s creative output could shape the game’s attacking narrative.

O. Idrissi vs Guadalajara’s back line

Another crucial angle is O. Idrissi operating from midfield/wing for Pachuca. Idrissi has 2 assists in 5 starts (411 minutes) and is a key chance creator with 6 key passes and 149 total passes at 83% accuracy. He also offers dribbling threat, attempting 23 dribbles with 10 successes, and draws plenty of fouls (9), which can generate set-piece opportunities.

Chivas’ defensive unit, which has allowed just 1.0 goals per match and kept 2 clean sheets, will be tasked with containing Idrissi’s creativity and service to Rondón. Players like M. Tapias and B. González from the Guadalajara defensive roster will need to manage Idrissi’s one-v-one ability and prevent him from delivering quality into the box.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent head-to-head history strongly favours Guadalajara Chivas, who have dominated this fixture in the last few years, both home and away.

• 10 January 2026: Guadalajara Chivas 2-0 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
• 3 November 2025: CF Pachuca 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
• 23 February 2025: Guadalajara Chivas 2-1 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
• 19 October 2024: CF Pachuca 0-2 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
• 13 April 2024: CF Pachuca 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)

CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction

Stats suggest Guadalajara Chivas arrive as justified favourites. The prediction model gives Pachuca only a 10% chance of victory, with a 45% probability for a Chivas win and 45% for a draw. Combined with Chivas’ superior form (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) and their commanding recent H2H record — four straight wins over Pachuca in Liga MX — the visitors clearly have the edge.

Pachuca, however, are not toothless. They average 1.4 goals per game and have a prolific striker in S. Rondón, while their goals for/against profile mirrors Chivas’ in total numbers. The main issue has been defensive concentration, especially late in games, where a significant share of their goals conceded has come after the 76th minute.

Given the relatively balanced attacking stats, Chivas’ better defensive record, and the high combined probability for away win or draw, this match is likely to be tight. A low-scoring contest with Chivas avoiding defeat looks the most plausible scenario.

Predicted Score: CF Pachuca 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas

CF Pachuca Recent Form

Pachuca’s recent form in Liga MX reads DLLLW, reflecting a poor run with three losses in their last four matches. Across 5 games they have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 7. At home they have struggled badly: 2 defeats from 2, with 3 goals scored and 5 conceded, and no clean sheets at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo so far this Apertura.

Guadalajara Chivas Recent Form

Guadalajara Chivas come in with a strong recent sequence of WWDWL. They have 3 wins, 1 draw and just 1 loss from 5 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Away from home, Chivas are unbeaten with 1 win and 1 draw, scoring 2 and conceding only 1. Their defensive solidity and ability to find goals in key periods, especially between minutes 61-75, underpin their positive start.

CF Pachuca Possible Starting Lineup

Likely key players (not a confirmed XI):

Goalkeepers: C. Moreno or J. Eulogio
Defenders: Eduardo Bauermann, M. Isaís, A. Mozo, F. Venegas, C. Sánchez
Midfielders: C. Rivera, R. Pizarro, O. Idrissi, Kenedy, E. Montiel
Forwards: S. Rondón, I. Hernández, N. Vallejo

Pachuca have typically lined up in a 4-2-3-1 this season, with S. Rondón as the central striker supported by creative midfielders like O. Idrissi and R. Pizarro. Eduardo Bauermann and C. Rivera provide defensive steel, though both have already picked up red cards this campaign in tournament statistics, highlighting a potential discipline risk. Expect Pachuca to rely heavily on width and crossing to feed Rondón, while trying to tighten up a back line that has been leaky at home.

Guadalajara Chivas Possible Starting Lineup

Likely key players (not a confirmed XI):

Goalkeepers: J. Rangel or Óscar Whalley
Defenders: M. Tapias, B. González, J. Castillo, D. Aguirre
Midfielders: R. Alvarado, L. Romo, O. Govea, E. Álvarez, B. Gutiérrez
Forwards: R. Marín, Á. Sepúlveda, J. Pérez

Chivas have favoured a 3-1-4-2 structure in this Apertura, with three central defenders and a flexible midfield. R. Alvarado is central to their attacking plan, drifting into pockets to create and finish chances. The presence of Á. Sepúlveda, who has seen a red card in limited minutes, and physical forwards like R. Marín suggests Guadalajara can mix combination play with aerial threat. Their shape has so far provided a good balance between attack and defensive protection.

CF Pachuca Team News

No significant absences reported.

Guadalajara Chivas Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

CF Pachuca:

• None reported.

Guadalajara Chivas:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas

Exactly 3 distinct betting angles for this Liga MX clash:

• Result Tip: Double chance – Draw or Guadalajara Chivas. With Pachuca given only a 10% win probability and Chivas/draw each at 45%, backing the visitors not to lose aligns with both form and the prediction model. Market odds for an away win range from 2.20 to 2.45 (implied roughly 40.8% to 45.5%), while home odds are higher (up to 3.10), confirming Chivas as favourites. A conservative approach is to protect against the draw.
• Goals Tip: Under 2.5 total goals. Both teams average close to 1–1.5 goals for and against per game (Pachuca 1.4 for/1.4 against; Chivas 1.6 for/1.0 against), and several recent H2H meetings have been low-scoring (1-0, 0-1, 0-2). With Chivas defensively solid and Pachuca struggling to break them down historically, a tight game with 2 or fewer goals is a logical angle. Use the under/over market from your chosen bookmaker around the 2.5 line.
• Value Tip: S. Rondón to score anytime (player-focused angle). Rondón has 5 goals in 5 appearances, including 1 penalty, and averages 3 shots per game. Even against a strong Chivas defence, his volume of chances and penalty duty make him a value goalscorer pick compared to the match odds that heavily favour Guadalajara. Look for anytime scorer prices that reflect his current scoring rate rather than Pachuca’s overall form.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.