Charleston Battery vs FC Tulsa: USL Championship Match Preview

Charleston Battery host FC Tulsa at Patriots Point Soccer Complex in a USL Championship group-stage clash on 13 June 2026, with both sides sitting in the top five of their conference and eyeing the play-off 1/8 final spots. Charleston are 5th with 17 points from 11 matches (5-2-4, 16:15), while Tulsa are 3rd with 16 points from 10 (4-4-2, 13:9). The table says these are evenly matched contenders, but the context of home/away splits and market prices tells a more nuanced story.

Looking at recent form over a comparable sample, Charleston have been inconsistent but dangerous. Their league form string “WWLWLDLWLWD” reflects a high-variance profile: 5 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses overall. Crucially, they are perfect at home in terms of avoiding defeat: 4-1-0 from 5 home games, scoring 12 and conceding just 4. That’s 2.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per home match, underlining a strong home attack and a solid defensive platform in Mount Pleasant.

FC Tulsa come in with a more stable trajectory. Their form “LDWDLDWWWD” shows they have lost only 2 of 10 league fixtures, with 4 wins and 4 draws. Away from home they are 2-2-1 (7:5), averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per away game. The prediction model’s comparison section rates Tulsa higher on recent form (61% vs 39%), attack (53% vs 47%) and especially defence (70% vs 30%), reflecting that Tulsa’s overall defensive numbers (9 conceded in 10) are stronger than Charleston’s (15 conceded in 11).

However, Charleston’s home/away split is key for betting: they have failed to score in 0 home games but in 4 away matches, while Tulsa’s failures to score are evenly split home and away (2 each). At Patriots Point, Charleston tend to impose themselves offensively and keep the back door relatively closed, which offsets Tulsa’s marginal edge in overall defensive metrics.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record in the USL Championship supports a slight tilt toward the hosts. On 2024-04-20 at ONEOK Field, Charleston went to Tulsa and won 4-1, turning a 1-3 half-time scoreline into a dominant away victory. On 2023-09-23 at Patriots Point, Charleston beat Tulsa 2-1, having led 2-0 at half-time and then managing the game out. Earlier that year, on 2023-04-15 at ONEOK Field, Charleston again won 2-1 away after a 1-1 first half. Going back to 2022, the balance was more even: on 2022-06-26 at ONEOK Field, Tulsa Roughnecks beat Charleston 2-1, while on 2022-03-13 at Patriots Point, Charleston edged Tulsa Roughnecks 1-0. Across these five USL Championship fixtures, Patriots Point has twice produced narrow home wins for Charleston, while Tulsa’s successes have come only in Oklahoma.

Prediction and Betting Odds

The prediction engine leans clearly to the home side: Charleston are given a 45% win probability, the draw also 45%, and Tulsa just 10%. The model’s overall comparison gives Charleston a slight 54% vs 46% edge, and the Poisson-based goal distribution favours the hosts 61% to 39%. It also expects a relatively low-scoring game, with both teams projected under 2.5 goals individually.

The betting markets are broadly aligned with Charleston’s advantage, though not as extreme as the raw prediction percentages. Across major bookmakers, home odds range roughly from 1.62 to 1.78, implying around 56–62% win probability. Draw is around 3.40–3.60, and away between 4.10 and 4.60, implying Tulsa in the 20–24% win range. The official advice from the prediction data is “Double chance: Charleston Battery or draw,” which matches both the statistical edge and the odds picture: the home side are strong at Patriots Point, but Tulsa’s overall form and defensive solidity mean a stalemate is very plausible.

Betting verdict: The data-backed play is to follow the model’s advice and take Charleston Battery or draw (double chance). For those seeking a bit more risk, the combination of Charleston’s dominant home record and Tulsa’s relatively low-scoring profile also supports a lean toward Charleston Draw No Bet or Charleston to win in a tight match, but the safest value-congruent angle remains the double chance on the hosts.