CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round Preview

Under the floodlights of National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia on 13 August 2026, CSKA Sofia return home with a three-goal cushion and a chance to finish the job against Maccabi Tel Aviv in the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round. For the Bulgarian side, it is an opportunity to turn a powerful start to the campaign into a full-scale European run; for the Israelis, it is about pride, damage limitation, and clinging to the faint hope of a miraculous comeback after a bruising first leg.

Season Context

CSKA Sofia arrive in this tie in commanding continental form, unbeaten across 5 Europa League matches so far with 4 wins and 1 draw (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 defeats). They have combined solidity and incision, scoring 9 goals and conceding only 3 over those 5 games, a balance that underpins their push toward the play-off round.

Maccabi Tel Aviv’s European story in 2026 has been more volatile but still competitive: 3 matches, 2 wins and 1 defeat (2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss). They have shown explosive attacking potential with 6 goals scored in just 3 games, but the 0-3 home loss to CSKA Sofia exposed defensive vulnerabilities, particularly when chasing the game (3 goals conceded in 3 matches, all at home).

Form & Momentum

CSKA Sofia’s recent form in this Europa League campaign is encapsulated by their sequence “WWDWW”, a run that reflects both resilience and cutting edge (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 defeats, 9 goals scored, 3 conceded). Averaging 1.8 goals per game while allowing just 0.6, they have been consistently efficient at both ends, with three clean sheets in those 5 fixtures reinforcing their defensive organisation.

Maccabi Tel Aviv come into Sofia on the back of a “WWL” pattern in Europe, a snapshot of early momentum checked by a heavy setback (2 wins, 1 loss, 6 goals scored, 3 conceded in 3 matches). Their attack has been potent at 2.0 goals per game, but the fact all 3 goals conceded have come at home suggests they are more comfortable when they can play on the break away from their own crowd.

Head-to-Head Patterns

The only recent competitive meeting between these sides came just a week earlier, when CSKA Sofia stunned Maccabi Tel Aviv 3-0 in the first leg at Batumi Arena (3-0, UEFA Europa League, season 2026, August 2026). That night in Georgia, Maccabi Tel Aviv were the designated home team but were overwhelmed by CSKA’s intensity and clinical finishing. With no other non-friendly clashes in the data, the narrative is simple but stark: CSKA Sofia have already proven they can dominate this opponent on neutral turf, let alone in Sofia.

Tactical Preview

CSKA Sofia’s European campaign has showcased tactical flexibility, with five different formations used across 5 matches, including 4-3-1-2, 3-5-2, 4-4-2, 4-1-4-1 and 4-3-3 (each used once). That variety hints at a coach willing to adapt to opponents while maintaining a consistent identity: a side that scores freely (9 goals in 5 matches) yet keeps things tight enough at the back (3 goals conceded, 3 clean sheets). The ability to win both high-scoring and controlled games is underlined by their biggest victories — 3-2 at home and 0-3 away — showing they can either outgun or shut down opponents depending on the game state.

In personnel terms, CSKA Sofia have a deep and balanced squad. At the back, figures like J. Gbamin and Adrián Lapeña give them physical presence and composure, while full-backs such as Á. Martino and Pastor can support attacks. The midfield mix of S. Sensi, Bruno Jordão and M. Ebong provides a blend of passing, pressing and ball-carrying, with creative options like M. Brahimi and Léo Pereira able to operate between the lines. Up front, I. Pittas, S. Godoy and J. Zwarts offer varied profiles as target men, runners in behind and link forwards, giving CSKA multiple ways to threaten a Maccabi defence that has already been stretched.

Maccabi Tel Aviv have alternated between 3-5-2, 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1 in their 3 Europa League outings, suggesting a team searching for the right balance between their natural attacking instincts and the defensive structure needed at this level. Their 0-5 away win earlier in the campaign shows how devastating they can be when transitions click (5 away goals in that single match), but the 0-3 home defeat to CSKA Sofia highlighted what happens when their back line is exposed (3 goals conceded at home, 0 away).

Defensively, experienced names like M. Camara and R. Shlomo anchor the back line, with R. Revivo and S. Yehezkel offering width and delivery from the flanks. In midfield, D. Glazer and Dor Peretz provide industry and control, while creative sparks such as O. Davida and K. Belić can drive the ball forward. In attack, E. Sokler and Y. Malede are key reference points, supported by versatile forwards like Hélio Varela and E. Madmon. To overturn the tie, Maccabi will likely need to lean into an aggressive, front-foot setup, risking the very counter-attacks that CSKA exploited in the first leg.

Statistical Snapshot

• Competition: UEFA Europa League, season 2026 — 13 August 2026.
• Venue: National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia.
• Prediction: Win or draw — Double chance : CSKA Sofia or draw.
• Win Probabilities: Home 45% / Draw 45% / Away 10%.
• Model: CSKA Sofia 59.3 — Maccabi Tel Aviv 40.7.

Betting Verdict

The prediction models lean firmly toward the hosts avoiding defeat, with a combined 90% probability assigned to either a CSKA Sofia win or a draw and only 10% to a Maccabi Tel Aviv victory. The comparison model also tilts toward CSKA Sofia, rating them 59.3 against Maccabi’s 40.7, in line with their stronger form line (WWDWW versus WWL) and the emphatic 3-0 first-leg win. Bookmakers broadly reflect this edge: home odds range roughly from 1.98 to 2.14, implying an approximate 47–51% chance of a CSKA win, while draw prices around 3.10–3.25 and away odds near 3.40–4.05 suggest significantly lower confidence in a Maccabi comeback. Taking into account CSKA’s unbeaten run and defensive record (3 goals conceded in 5 matches) against Maccabi’s need to chase the tie, the advised angle “Double chance : CSKA Sofia or draw” looks well supported by both numbers and narrative.