CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round Preview

CSKA Sofia host Maccabi Tel Aviv at National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia in the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round, with the Bulgarians defending a commanding position after their 3–0 away win in Batumi a week earlier. With the tie context strongly in their favour and the model making them clear favourites not to lose, this second leg shapes up as a spot where CSKA can control risk while still offering value on the double‑chance markets.

Form Deep-Dive

Using the prediction data’s tournament window, CSKA Sofia arrive in outstanding Europa League form: their league form string is “WWDWW”, meaning they are unbeaten in five, with four wins and one draw. Across those five fixtures they have scored 9 goals (1.8 per match) and conceded just 3 (0.6 per match). Their last-five comparison indices underline the edge: overall form index 87 versus 67 for Maccabi, attack 69 versus 46, and defense 77 versus 77. CSKA’s balance between a productive attack and a tight back line is a major factor behind the model’s preference for them.

Maccabi Tel Aviv’s Europa League form is more volatile at “WWL” from three matches. They have 2 wins and 1 defeat, with 6 goals scored and 3 conceded in that span (2.0 scored, 1.0 conceded on average). The numbers show a dangerous attacking unit, especially away from home (5 of their 6 goals have come on the road), but also a side that can be opened up, as the 0–3 home loss to CSKA in the first leg confirmed.

Minute-by-minute goal data reinforces the pattern: CSKA spread their 9 goals fairly evenly across all phases, with contributions in every 15‑minute interval from 0–90. Defensively, they are most vulnerable late (2 of 3 goals conceded between 76–90). Maccabi also score throughout the game but conceded three times at home, with early goals (0–30) and very late (76–90) being problematic. Over a 90‑minute profile, CSKA look more stable.

H2H Analysis

There is one competitive head-to-head in the data, and it is highly relevant: on 2026‑08‑06 at Batumi Arena, in the same competition and round, Maccabi Tel Aviv were the nominal home side and lost 0–3 to CSKA Sofia. CSKA led 2–0 at half-time and closed out a comprehensive victory without conceding, confirming both their attacking threat and defensive solidity in this specific matchup.

The comparison block reflects this: the h2h index is 100 for CSKA and 0 for Maccabi, and the goals comparison is also 100–0 in CSKA’s favour. While this is based on a single match, it is the only direct reference point and it strongly supports the model’s tilt towards the Bulgarians in the return leg.

Odds vs Model: Where Is the Value?

The prediction model gives CSKA Sofia a 45% chance to win the match, a 45% chance of a draw, and only a 10% probability for a Maccabi Tel Aviv away win. The official advice is explicit: “Double chance : CSKA Sofia or draw”, with the winner comment “Win or draw” for CSKA.

Market prices, however, are more balanced. Across major bookmakers, home odds for CSKA range from 2.23 to 2.41, implying an unsmoothed probability band of roughly 41–45%. Draw odds range from 2.98 to 3.40 (implied around 29–34%), and away odds from 2.73 to 3.14 (implied around 32–37%). In other words, the market sees this as a near‑coin‑flip three‑way, with only a slight lean towards CSKA, whereas the model is much more pessimistic about Maccabi’s winning chances (10%).

This discrepancy is key for bettors. The model suggests that the risk of an away win is significantly lower than the odds imply. With CSKA unbeaten in five Europa League games (WWDWW), having kept three clean sheets and already winning 3–0 “away” in the first leg, the statistical case for them avoiding defeat at home is strong.

Betting Verdict

Given the official prediction and the odds landscape, the most data‑aligned play is:

• Primary bet: Double chance – CSKA Sofia or Draw. This directly follows the model’s advice and leverages the 90% combined model probability on the home side not losing, against a market that prices Maccabi’s win chance far higher.

For more aggressive bettors, the outright home win at around 2.23–2.41 is also defensible: the model’s 45% win probability is broadly in line with the upper end of implied odds, and CSKA’s perfect defensive record in this tie plus their strong form support a scenario where they can win again while managing the aggregate. However, from a risk‑adjusted perspective, the double‑chance route best captures the edge indicated by the prediction data.