Gameweek 38: Final Day Strategies for FPL Success

Gameweek 38 always feels different. Edgy. Loose. The table is almost written, managers are second‑guessing line-ups, and anyone chasing in mini-leagues is staring at that “Confirm Transfers” button like it’s a penalty in stoppage time.

Rotation dominates the conversation this week, but the picture is clearer than usual. The real stakes sit in the race for Europe – sixth to eighth – and the fight to avoid relegation involving West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. Those battles shape everything.

Who actually has something to play for?

Start there and the noise drops.

Liverpool, Bournemouth, Brighton and Hove Albion, Chelsea, Sunderland, Brentford, West Ham and Spurs all still carry a live edge to their season. That competitive tension usually keeps managers honest. Wholesale rotation from those clubs? Unlikely.

That doesn’t automatically make them the best hunting ground for FPL points. Final days often explode when both sides are “on the beach” and defending becomes optional. But if you own assets from those clubs, you can be reasonably confident they start. That matters more than ever when you’re chasing and tempted by hits.

Arsenal: strong team, soft FPL appeal

Most squads are already tripled up on Arsenal and Manchester City, so the big calls sit there.

Mikel Arteta kept his cards close to his chest, but the training ground told a story. David Raya (£6.2m), Bukayo Saka (£10.0m) and William Saliba (£6.3m) all worked individually, away from the main group on Thursday. They could still make the XI, but of that trio, Saka and Saliba feel the likeliest to be protected.

There’s a logic to giving Noni Madueke (£6.8m) a proper run after he failed to get on the pitch against Burnley, easing the load on Saka and saving him for a late cameo if needed. Raya, meanwhile, has the Golden Glove secured but is chasing the record for most clean sheets by an Arsenal goalkeeper in a single season. That personal milestone nudges his chances of starting upwards.

Up front, the uncertainty deepens. Viktor Gyokeres (£9.1m) might lead the line, but Gabriel Jesus (£6.4m) or even Kai Havertz (£7.3m) could just as easily get the nod. However Arteta shuffles it, this does not scream high-scoring Arsenal win. If you have free transfers, moving on Arsenal attackers looks entirely reasonable. You sell Saka before Gyokeres, though.

Buying into the Gunners’ attack for a final‑day punt? That feels like forcing it.

Manchester City: one last Etihad occasion

Then there is City, always the FPL riddle, now wrapped in emotion. It is widely expected to be Pep Guardiola’s final game in charge, even if he has not publicly confirmed it at the time of writing. Add in the unveiling of the new stand at the Etihad, with 7,000 extra supporters, and you get a sense of a club gearing up for an occasion.

Erling Haaland (£14.7m) has the World Cup ahead this summer, so the thought of a rest is not outlandish. Yet this stage, this farewell, points towards him starting – perhaps with an early substitution if City race clear.

Phil Foden (£8.0m) should also be in the XI, which immediately clouds the outlook for Rayan Cherki (£6.6m). Nico O’Reilly (£5.3m) is even harder to call, much like Antoine Semenyo (£8.0m); they live in that grey zone of Pep’s rotation where logic often loses.

The fixture itself carries the scent of goals. Aston Villa are still basking in a midweek Europa League triumph and may not bring their usual intensity. If you already own Haaland and O’Reilly, the sensible lean is to keep them and cut Cherki and Semenyo instead.

Aston Villa: mass changes incoming

On Villa, the expectation is simple: mass rotation. The minutes, the midweek celebrations, the lack of pressing league jeopardy – it all points one way. For FPL, they’re sells or bench fodder. If you’re still clinging to them for a miracle haul, you know the risk you’re taking.

Manchester United and Liverpool: clarity at last

Manchester United’s picture is relatively clean. Bruno Fernandes (£10.4m), Matheus Cunha (£8.1m) and Bryan Mbeumo (£8.3m) are all expected to start. Casemiro (£5.9m) is out, as Michael Carrick has already confirmed, and outside that core, ownership is minimal.

Liverpool look set to go strong. Dominik Szoboszlai (£7.1m) and Virgil van Dijk (£6.0m) should both start. Mohamed Salah (£14.0m) is in the same bracket, fitness permitting and subject to Arne Slot’s latest comments. If you’re hunting a big final‑day swing, the Egyptian remains a compelling card to play.

Beyond them, Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.8m) stands out among the few other highly owned names. He should also lead the line.

Hits, benches and the lure of chaos

This is the week where managers talk themselves into -8s and -12s on the basis of “Pep roulette” and rumoured leaks. It rarely ends well.

Taking hits purely to guess rotation is a dangerous game, especially when final‑day team news leaks usually flood social media in the hour before deadline. Use your bench. Accept that random events will shape Gameweek 38 more than any spreadsheet can.

If you’re going to gamble, do it with information, not fear.

The Differential XI: How to Free Hit Past the Template

Now to the fun part: how do you jump mini-league rivals who are stacked with six Arsenal and City players?

If you’re on a Free Hit, you can lean into the chaos. Here’s how a differential‑driven XI might look, built to exploit opportunity rather than hide from rotation.

Defence: look to the relegation fight

The back line almost picks itself in terms of value.

West Ham and Spurs offer the only defences truly worth targeting with a free transfer. Both are locked into that relegation scrap, both will treat this as a cup final, and both have defenders with attacking threat.

Pedro Porro (£5.2m) brings his usual license to bomb on. Konstantinos Mavropanos (£4.5m) offers set‑piece danger and a decent clean sheet chance.

John Stones (£5.4m) also comes into the conversation. This is likely his last game for Manchester City, and that narrative, combined with Pep’s tendency to reward loyal servants, makes his start highly probable.

Midfield: goals where structure breaks down

Jack Hinshelwood (£5.2m) has quietly become a late‑season gem. He leads all midfielders for big chances over the last six Gameweeks, and with Casemiro rested, Brighton should find enough space to create. On current form, he is more than just a budget enabler.

Then there is Salah. One last hurrah for the FPL king? He is a strong captaincy option, though Hinshelwood’s numbers and price make him an intriguing alternative if you’re really swinging for upside.

Burnley’s clash with Wolverhampton Wanderers has the feel of a loose, open contest, with neither side keen to finish bottom and both more interested in expression than control. Zian Flemming (£5.3m) would have been the first choice from that fixture, but with forward slots too valuable, Jaidon Anthony (£5.0m) becomes the pick instead.

Morgan Gibbs-White (£7.5m) rounds out the midfield. Nottingham Forest showed against United that defending is no longer a priority, but at home they still carry a punch. Bournemouth sit in the bottom five for expected goals conceded in away matches, and that weakness sets the stage for Gibbs-White to influence a high‑scoring contest.

Forwards: penalties, minutes and motivation

Up front, you want three things: penalties, 90 minutes and a reason to care.

Richarlison (£6.4m) and Jarrod Bowen (£7.7m) tick all those boxes. Both are on spot-kicks, both rarely leave the pitch early, and both are central to their clubs’ hopes of staying up. When the pressure spikes, the game often funnels towards players like these.

The final slot goes to William Osula (£5.5m). He sits in the top three for expected goals over the last six Gameweeks, an eye‑catching stat for a forward at that price. With Marco Silva’s departure from Fulham imminent, the atmosphere at Craven Cottage could loosen, and that kind of emotional drift often breeds goals.

The 2025/26 FPL season closes with the usual blend of logic and madness: numbers on one side, narrative on the other, and a deadline that punishes hesitation. The differentials are there, the rotation traps are set, and the final green arrow of the campaign waits for whoever judges it best.

The next question is simple: when the teams drop and the leaks land, will you play safe with the crowd—or chase the kind of punt you remember all summer?