North Carolina Courage W vs Chicago Red Stars W: NWSL Showdown

WakeMed Soccer Park hosts a meeting of two struggling sides on 16 May 2026, as North Carolina Courage W welcome Chicago Red Stars W in NWSL Women Group Stage action. The Courage come in 13th with 9 points from 8 matches, while Chicago sit bottom in 16th on 6 points from 9 games. With both teams in the lower reaches of the table and still searching for consistency, this fixture looks more like an early-season six-pointer than a routine group-stage date.

Form and momentum

In the league, North Carolina’s recent form reads “LLDWD”, reflecting an uneven but slightly upward trend. Across all phases they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from 8 outings, with a goal difference of 9-11. They have been more volatile at home: 1 win, 1 draw and 2 losses, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Their away record (1-2-1, goals 3-3) is actually more solid, underlining how important it is to turn WakeMed into a genuine asset again.

Chicago’s picture is harsher. In the league their form line “LLLWL” underlines a season of repeated setbacks. Across all phases they are 2-0-7 from 9 matches, with only 4 goals scored and 18 conceded. Their away numbers are stark: 4 defeats from 4, no goals scored and 10 conceded. They have yet to take a single point on the road in 2026 and have failed to score in every away match.

The Courage at least come in with a platform: they average 1.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match across all phases. Chicago are at 0.4 for and 2.0 against. On underlying numbers alone, the hosts have a clearer base to build from.

Tactical outlook: Courage’s attacking structure vs Chicago’s resistance

North Carolina have shown flexibility in their setups. Across all phases, they have most often used a 4-3-3 (3 times), with alternative looks in 3-4-3 (2), plus one appearance each for 4-4-2, 5-3-2 and 3-4-2-1. That tactical variety suggests a coach willing to adjust to opponents and game states. The 4-3-3 and 3-4-3 variants point towards a side that wants width, multiple high positions and the ability to overload wide areas at home.

The Courage’s attacking profile supports that approach. They have scored 6 of their 9 goals at WakeMed, at a healthy 1.5 per home game. They have not failed to score at home yet this season (0 “failed to score” at home), which is a significant psychological edge against a visiting side that has yet to find the net on its travels.

Chicago, by contrast, have been tactically stable but blunt. They have lined up in 4-2-3-1 in 8 of 9 matches, with one outing in 4-3-3. The 4-2-3-1 is designed to provide defensive cover in front of the back four, but the trade-off has been a near-total lack of away threat: 0 goals from 4 away games, and only 4 goals overall. Their “failed to score” count is 7 from 9 matches across all phases, including all four away fixtures.

Defensively, Chicago’s structure is under strain. They concede 2.5 goals per away game on average and 2.0 overall. Their biggest away defeat this season is 4-0, and their “biggest goals against away” figure of 4 hints at how quickly matches can run away from them if they fall behind.

North Carolina are not watertight themselves. They concede 2.0 goals per home match and have yet to keep a clean sheet at WakeMed this season (0 home clean sheets, 2 away). Their biggest home defeat is 1-3, and the “biggest goals against home” figure of 3 shows they can be exposed if the press or defensive structure breaks down. But against a Chicago side that rarely scores, the Courage’s defensive vulnerabilities are less likely to be punished than in other fixtures.

Key player focus: Ashley Sanchez as the creative axis

The standout individual in this matchup is North Carolina midfielder Ashley Nicole Sanchez. She is currently second in the NWSL Women rating charts, with a 7.35 average rating across 8 appearances. Her output is central to the Courage’s attacking identity:

• 5 goals in 8 matches, making her the clear goal threat from midfield.
• 18 shots, 11 on target, underlining her willingness and ability to test goalkeepers.
• 158 passes with 11 key passes, showing she is not just a finisher but also a creator.
• 36 dribble attempts with 12 successes, giving the Courage a ball-carrying outlet between the lines.

Sanchez has started every match, playing 661 minutes, and has only been substituted twice. Her presence between the lines is likely to stretch Chicago’s double pivot in the 4-2-3-1, forcing the Red Stars’ holding midfielders into difficult choices between tracking her runs and protecting the back four.

With no injury data flagged for either side, there is no confirmed absence to disrupt North Carolina’s reliance on Sanchez. For Chicago, the lack of listed top scorers in the data only reinforces the picture of a team still searching for a reliable attacking reference point.

Discipline, tempo and game flow

Discipline may play a subtle role in shaping the match’s rhythm. North Carolina have accumulated yellow cards heavily in the 46-60 and 76-90 minute ranges, with one red card shown between 76-90 minutes across all phases. That profile suggests a side that can become stretched or forced into late-game fouls when protecting or chasing results.

Chicago’s yellow cards cluster before half-time, particularly in the 31-45 minute window. If that pattern continues, the Courage’s wide players and Sanchez’s dribbling could draw early fouls and free-kicks in advanced areas, helping the hosts to pin the Red Stars back.

Neither team has taken or scored a penalty this season, so there is no spot-kick trend to lean on.

Head-to-head: Courage dominance in recent years

The last five competitive meetings between these sides (all in the NWSL Women) underline a clear North Carolina edge:

1. 23 August 2025, SeatGeek Stadium (Bridgeview) – Chicago Red Stars W 3-3 North Carolina Courage W, draw.
2. 17 May 2025, WakeMed Soccer Park (Cary) – North Carolina Courage W 2-0 Chicago Red Stars W, North Carolina win.
3. 29 September 2024, SeatGeek Stadium (Bridgeview, Illinois) – Chicago Red Stars W 1-3 North Carolina Courage W, North Carolina win.
4. 23 June 2024, WakeMed Soccer Park (Cary, North Carolina) – North Carolina Courage W 3-1 Chicago Red Stars W, North Carolina win.
5. 27 August 2023, WakeMed Soccer Park (Cary, North Carolina) – North Carolina Courage W 1-1 Chicago Red Stars W, draw.

Across these five league meetings, North Carolina have 3 wins, Chicago have 0, and there have been 2 draws. The Courage have scored 12 goals to Chicago’s 6 in that span, and at WakeMed specifically they are unbeaten in the last three (two wins, one draw).

The verdict

Data and recent history both tilt this fixture towards North Carolina Courage W.

• The hosts score regularly at home (6 goals in 4 matches) and have yet to fail to score at WakeMed this season.
• Chicago Red Stars W have lost all four away games, scoring 0 and conceding 10.
• Ashley Sanchez provides a high-level attacking and creative platform that Chicago have no clear equivalent for in the data.
• Recent head-to-head meetings show North Carolina with 3 wins and 2 draws in the last five, including strong performances at this venue.

Chicago’s best hope lies in tightening their 4-2-3-1 block, slowing the game, and trying to exploit North Carolina’s tendency to concede at home. But with the Courage’s attacking numbers and Sanchez’s form, plus Chicago’s severe away struggles, the balance of probabilities points towards a home win, with North Carolina likely to find the net at least once and Chicago needing a significant improvement to take anything from WakeMed Soccer Park.