Who Will the USMNT Face in the 2026 World Cup Knockout Round?

The United States has secured its spot in the knockout stage by winning Group D at the 2026 World Cup. The big question now is: who will they face next?

The answer is complex. It depends on the World Cup bracket, FIFA's rules, and a complicated matrix involving 495 possible combinations for third-place teams advancing from group play.

Understanding the Bracket Setup

The tournament has expanded to 48 teams, with the top two from each group advancing alongside the eight best third-place teams. The USMNT, as Group D winners, will occupy the “1D” position in the bracket, where they’ll meet one of the third-place teams from Group B, E, F, I, or J.

Potential Opponents

Here’s a look at those groups and their teams:

• Group B: Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar, Switzerland
• Group E: Germany, Curaçao, Ivory Coast, Ecuador
• Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia (Tunisia eliminated)
• Group I: France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq
• Group J: Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan

At the moment, the third-place teams in these groups are Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ecuador, Sweden, Senegal, and Jordan. But only Ecuador and Sweden rank among the top eight third-place teams that would advance if the knockout round started today.

The Matrix of Possibilities

FIFA’s Annex C lays out all 495 ways these third-place teams can combine, dictating the Round of 32 matchups. Currently, scenario 283 applies, which pairs the US with the third-place team from Group E — that means Ecuador.

Still, this can change quickly. For example, many expect the US to face a Group B team instead, possibly decided by the outcome of Bosnia and Herzegovina versus Qatar.

Chances According to Experts

Analysts at Expecting Goals estimate the US has a 60% chance of playing Bosnia and Herzegovina, 17% for Qatar, 6% for Senegal, and 4% for Ecuador.

Recent Changes and Confirmation

Following Jordan vs. Algeria results, Algeria moved into third place in Group J, shifting the matrix so the US would face Algeria. Yet, this may shift again before fixtures are finalized.

As of Thursday night, the matchup is confirmed: the USMNT will play Bosnia and Herzegovina on July 1 in the Round of 32.