Getafe vs Mallorca: La Liga Clash Prediction

Getafe host Mallorca at the Coliseum in a late La Liga clash on 13 May 2026, with the home side pushing for European qualification and the visitors still needing points to stay clear of the relegation battle. Getafe come into this round 7th with 45 points and a negative goal difference (-8), while Mallorca sit 15th on 39 points (-9). The table says Getafe are stronger over the full campaign, but the prediction model and the market both suggest a much tighter contest.

Over the last eight league matches, Getafe’s overall form has clearly dipped. Their official league form string is heavy with losses, and the standings confirm a 13-6-16 record from 35 games, with only 28 goals scored and 36 conceded. At home they are 6-3-8 (14 scored, 15 conceded), averaging just 0.8 goals for and 0.9 against. Their last five overall, per the prediction dataset, show 3 goals scored and 5 conceded (0.6 for, 1.0 against on average), with a 40% form index and only 20% in attack. This is a low-output, defence-first team that often struggles to create.

Mallorca, by contrast, have stronger recent momentum despite their lower league position. Across 35 matches they are 10-9-16, but with a much more open goal profile (43 for, 52 against). Their big structural weakness is away form: just 2-3-12 on the road with 15 scored and 31 conceded. However, the prediction data for their last five shows a clear uptick: 8 goals scored and 4 conceded (1.6 for, 0.8 against), a 67% form index, 53% attack and 73% defence. That recent curve, plus Vedat Muriqi’s 22 league goals, explains why the model leans towards the visitors avoiding defeat despite their away record.

The head-to-head record in La Liga also leans slightly towards Mallorca in recent years, though it has been competitive. On 9 November 2025 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Mallorca beat Getafe 1-0 in La Liga. Earlier in that calendar year, on 18 May 2025, again at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Getafe won 2-1 in La Liga. On 21 December 2024 at Estadio Coliseum, Mallorca took a 1-0 away win in La Liga, and on 26 May 2024 at the same venue they won 2-1, also in La Liga. Going back to 28 October 2023, Mallorca and Getafe drew 0-0 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix in La Liga. On 23 April 2023 at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Mallorca won 3-1 in La Liga. Before that, Getafe had home wins in La Liga at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez: 2-0 on 30 December 2022 and 1-0 on 2 April 2022, while there was a 0-0 draw at Visit Mallorca Estadi on 27 November 2021 and a 1-0 Getafe away win at Iberostar Estadi on 1 March 2020. All of these are league fixtures, and they underline how often these games are tight and low scoring, with one-goal margins and several clean sheets.

The official prediction model gives Getafe only a 10% win probability, with draw and Mallorca both at 45%. It explicitly advises a “Combo Double chance: draw or Mallorca and -3.5 goals”, and projects fewer than 1.5 goals for Getafe and fewer than 2.5 for Mallorca. The comparison metrics back this up: Mallorca lead in overall form (63% vs 38%), attack (73% vs 27%), and goals (63% vs 38%), while defensive indices are closer.

The market, however, prices Getafe as favourites. Across major bookmakers, the home win ranges roughly from 2.05 to 2.23, the draw from 2.85 to 3.35, and the away win from 3.28 to 4.03. That implies the market still weights home advantage and league position more heavily than the model’s recent-form and stylistic data.

Betting Approach

Aligning with the official advice and given the consistent pattern of low-scoring, tight contests, the value side appears to be with Mallorca on the double chance combined with a goals angle. The most data-consistent betting approach is:

• Main bet: Double chance Mallorca or Draw, combined with under 3.5 total goals.
• Correct-score lean: 0-0 or 1-1, with 1-1 slightly more plausible given Mallorca’s recent attacking uptick.