Burnley vs Wolves Prediction: Key Stats, Lineups, Betting Tips

Burnley and Wolves meet at Turf Moor on 24 May 2026 in a final-day Premier League clash that decides who finishes bottom of the table. Both sides are already in the relegation zone, with Burnley 19th on 21 points and Wolves 20th on 19 points after 37 matches, but avoiding the wooden spoon and signing off with a win still carries real pride and narrative weight.

The match takes place at Turf Moor in Burnley, where the hosts have struggled badly, winning just twice in 18 home league outings. Wolves have been even worse travellers, failing to win a single away game in 18 attempts. With such poor records on both sides, this Burnley vs Wolves relegation battle shapes up as a tense, low-margin encounter where small details and set pieces could decide the outcome.

Stats suggest a tight, low-scoring game between two of the division’s weakest attacks, making this fixture particularly interesting for those seeking Burnley vs Wolves betting tips and a data-driven Burnley vs Wolves prediction. With both clubs conceding heavily across the campaign, the question is whether either can find enough cutting edge on the final day to exploit the other’s frailties.

Burnley vs Wolves Key Stats

• Burnley sit 19th with 21 points from 37 games, having scored 37 and conceded 74 in the league.
• Across the last five competitive meetings listed, Burnley have 2 wins, Wolves have 2 wins and there has been 1 draw.
• Burnley have averaged 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per league game, while Wolves average 0.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.

Burnley vs Wolves — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 19 vs 20
• Points: 21 vs 19
• Goals For: 37 vs 26
• Goals Against: 74 vs 67
• Clean Sheets: 4 vs 4

The season record shows Burnley slightly ahead of Wolves in both the table and attacking output. Burnley have scored 37 times in 37 matches compared to Wolves’ 26, a significant gap between two struggling sides. Defensively, both have been porous, with Burnley conceding 74 and Wolves 67, underlining why both clubs find themselves in the relegation places.

At home, Burnley have 2 wins, 6 draws and 10 defeats, while Wolves away have 0 wins, 5 draws and 13 losses. That makes Turf Moor a marginal advantage, but hardly a fortress. With both teams already consigned to the drop and separated by just two points, this fixture is essentially a play-off to avoid finishing 20th, and the numbers back the view that there is very little between them.

Burnley vs Wolves Key Matchups

Z. Flemming vs André

Z. Flemming has been Burnley’s standout attacking threat, scoring 10 league goals in 28 appearances. Operating as an attacking player with 20 shots on target from 37 attempts and 2 penalties scored, he is clearly Burnley’s primary goal source. His 10 key passes also highlight his creative influence, even if he has yet to register an assist.

For Wolves, André has been a central figure in midfield. Across 34 appearances and 2676 minutes, he has contributed 1 goal, but his profile is more about control and defensive work. With 1285 passes at 91% accuracy and 78 tackles, he is key to Wolves’ structure. The duel between Flemming’s goal threat and André’s ability to disrupt play in front of the back line could be decisive in a game where chances are likely to be scarce.

K. Walker vs João Gomes

K. Walker has been a mainstay in Burnley’s defence, making 35 appearances and 3007 minutes. His 55 tackles, 10 blocks and 44 interceptions underline his importance in a back line that has been under constant pressure. He has also chipped in with 2 assists and 12 key passes, providing some attacking thrust from deep, though his 9 yellow cards show he walks a disciplinary tightrope.

João Gomes is Wolves’ most combative midfielder, with 108 tackles and 36 interceptions in 35 appearances. He also contributes in possession, completing 1453 passes at 85% accuracy and providing 1 goal and 1 assist. His battle with Walker in wide and half-space areas – particularly when Wolves transition and when Burnley build from the back – will shape the rhythm of the game and could influence where the territorial advantage lies.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent head-to-head meetings between Burnley and Wolves have been relatively balanced, with both sides enjoying wins home and away. The last five competitive fixtures show no clear long-term dominance, reinforcing the expectation of a tight contest at Turf Moor.

• 26 October 2025: Wolves 2-3 Burnley (Premier League)
• 28 August 2024: Wolves 2-0 Burnley (League Cup)
• 2 April 2024: Burnley 1-1 Wolves (Premier League)
• 5 December 2023: Wolves 1-0 Burnley (Premier League)
• 9 July 2022: Wolves 3-0 Burnley (Friendlies Clubs)

Burnley vs Wolves Prediction

Analysis points to an extremely tight and low-scoring encounter. Both teams come into this with poor league form: Burnley’s recent league form string is “LDLLL”, while Wolves’ is “DLDLL”. Burnley have a slightly better attack, but Wolves’ defensive metrics and the prediction metrics tilt marginally in their favour.

The prediction model gives Wolves a 45% chance of victory and a 45% chance of a draw, with only 10% allocated to a Burnley win. The advice leans towards “Double chance: draw or Wolves”, reflecting greater confidence in the visitors avoiding defeat rather than winning outright. With both sides averaging well under 1.5 goals scored per game and both conceding heavily, a cagey, error-strewn match decided by a single goal or ending level looks most likely.

Predicted Score: Burnley 0-1 Wolves

Burnley League Form

LDLLL

Wolves League Form

DLDLL

Burnley Possible Starting Lineup

M. Dúbravka; K. Walker, M. Estève, A. Tuanzebe, Lucas Pires; J. Ward-Prowse, Florentino, J. Laurent; Z. Flemming, J. Bruun Larsen, L. Foster.

Burnley have frequently used back-four systems such as 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3, and the personnel above fit those patterns. M. Dúbravka offers experience in goal, with K. Walker’s presence at right-back adding leadership and defensive solidity. In midfield, J. Ward-Prowse, Florentino and J. Laurent provide work rate and set-piece quality, while Z. Flemming is the key attacking focal point between the lines. L. Foster and J. Bruun Larsen give options in the front line, but given Burnley’s low scoring average, they will need to be far more clinical than they have been for most of the campaign.

Wolves Possible Starting Lineup

José Sá; Y. Mosquera, L. Krejčí, Toti Gomes; Pedro Lima, André, João Gomes, Hugo Bueno; Rodrigo Gomes; Hwang Hee-Chan, A. Armstrong.

Wolves have predominantly favoured back-three systems such as 3-4-2-1 and 3-5-2, and the above selection mirrors those trends. José Sá is a reliable presence in goal, while Y. Mosquera’s aggressive defending and aerial strength are central to the back line. André and João Gomes form a combative midfield pairing that can both protect the defence and circulate possession efficiently. In attack, Hwang Hee-Chan and A. Armstrong provide mobility and pressing, with Rodrigo Gomes offering creativity in advanced midfield roles. However, with just 26 goals all season, turning territorial phases into clear chances remains their biggest challenge.

Burnley Team News

No significant absences reported.

Wolves Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Burnley:

• None reported.

Wolves:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Burnley vs Wolves

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back Wolves Draw No Bet or Double Chance (Draw or Wolves). The prediction percentages give Burnley just 10% compared to 45% for a Wolves win and 45% for the draw, indicating strong value in siding against a home victory. For a straight match-winner angle, several firms make Wolves slight underdogs, with prices such as 2.75–2.84 on the away win (e.g. Bet365 2.75, 1xBet 2.84), reflecting a market that still slightly favours Burnley’s home advantage despite the model edge towards Wolves avoiding defeat.
• Goals Tip: Under 2.5 goals. Burnley average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game, while Wolves average 0.7 scored and 1.8 conceded. Both attacks are among the least productive in the league, and recent H2H league meetings at Turf Moor have finished 1-1 and 1-0. While specific under/over odds are not listed here, the combination of weak attacks and final-day pressure supports a low-scoring angle.
• Value Tip: Card-focused angle on Wolves’ midfield and Burnley’s defence. André has picked up 12 yellow cards and João Gomes 10, while K. Walker has 9 yellows for Burnley. This disciplinary profile suggests a high card count in a tense relegation dead rubber. For those markets, consider player-card or over total cards lines where available, using match-winner odds around 2.49–2.56 for Burnley and 2.63–2.84 for Wolves (e.g. Pinnacle 2.49 home / 2.79 away, 1xBet 2.56 home / 2.84 away) as context for how finely balanced the contest is likely to be.

How to Watch Burnley vs Wolves

Broadcast coverage varies by region. General guide:

• Spain: Movistar LaLiga
• UK: Premier Sports
• Australia: beIN Sports
• India: FanCode
• MENA: beIN Sports
• South America: ESPN / Disney+
• Africa: SuperSport

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.