Liverpool's Defence Under Scrutiny as Atlético Returns to Anfield

Liverpool and Atlético Madrid meet again under the Anfield lights on Wednesday, a rerun of last season’s breathless Matchday 1 clash that finished 3-2 to the Reds. This time, the mood feels very different. The home side look open, edgy, and still trying to understand exactly what Andoni Iraola wants from them without the ball. Diego Simeone can smell that uncertainty.

Liverpool still a work in progress

Five points from three Premier League games sounds steady enough, but the details tell a sharper story. Liverpool conceded two goals in each of their first two league outings, drawing both, before finally tightening up in a 2-0 win at Ipswich.

That victory at Portman Road did at least showcase the new cutting edge of Alexander Isak. The Swedish forward struck twice in nine ruthless minutes and now has three goals in three league games this season. After an injury-hit first campaign that yielded just four goals in 22 appearances, he suddenly looks lighter on his feet, quicker in his movements, and far more decisive in front of goal.

Iraola still has to juggle his options. Hugo Ekitike, Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni remain unavailable, while Federico Chiesa and Wataru Endo were not registered for Champions League duty. The back line, in particular, is a puzzle in motion. Ronald Araújo has been shunted out to right-back to cover injuries, and the unit as a whole is yet to develop the kind of automatic understanding needed at this level.

Even so, the expected XI carries plenty of threat: Alisson; Kerkez, Araújo, Jacquet, van Dijk; Szoboszlai, Mac Allister, Barcola; Wirtz, Gakpo, Isak. On paper, it is a side that should dominate territory. On the pitch, chance creation has been surprisingly flat.

Liverpool sit 19th in the Premier League for big chances created – just four in three matches. For a team with this level of attacking talent, that is a jarring number. Florian Wirtz has not yet found his rhythm between the lines, and the patterns around him look incomplete.

Atlético eye Liverpool’s soft spots

Atlético arrive on Merseyside still stinging from a 3-0 defeat at Athletic Bilbao, but their broader picture is more stable: seventh points from four La Liga games and sixth place in the table. Simeone has seen enough to trust his structure. He has also seen enough of Liverpool’s defending to fancy his chances.

This is a fixture Atlético know how to handle. They won 3-2 at Anfield in 2019/20 and came back from 2-0 down here last season. The template is familiar: stay compact, punish mistakes, and lean on individual quality in transition.

The visitors are expected to line up with Oblak; Llorente, Romero, Hancko, Grimaldo; Giuliano Simeone, Barrios, Hjulmand, Lookman; Baena, Álvarez. Simeone is set to hand Julián Álvarez his first start of the season, a significant boost to their attacking variety. Cristian Romero is pushing for his first start since joining the club, adding steel and aggression to the back line.

There are absences to manage. Alexander Sorloth is out with a thigh problem and Arnau Ortiz is suspended. But Atlético’s core remains intact, and their midfield looks well equipped to suffocate Liverpool’s most creative zones. Pablo Barrios and Morten Hjulmand will be tasked with closing the pockets Wirtz loves to drift into, while Jan Oblak continues to provide calm authority behind them.

The numbers suggest the market is underestimating Simeone’s side. The implied probability of Atlético avoiding defeat sits at 46.5%. Given Liverpool’s defensive teething problems and Atlético’s track record at Anfield, that feels generous. A draw or away result would not be a shock; it would fit the pattern of how these sides are evolving.

Isak’s hot streak meets Atlético’s unsettled back line

If Liverpool are to break through, the form of Isak is the obvious starting point. Three goals in three league games is exactly the response Iraola wanted after last season’s frustrations. His brace at Ipswich, with Cody Gakpo assisting all three of his goals this term, underlined a growing understanding between the pair.

There is one cloud over the Swede’s profile: his Champions League record. One goal in 13 appearances is a thin return for a striker of his quality. Yet current form often cuts through old narratives, and Atlético’s defence is hardly watertight right now after conceding three at Bilbao.

With that context, the implied 47.6% chance of Isak scoring at any time looks low. If Liverpool can pin Atlético back and feed their No 9 regularly, his confidence and sharpness make him a serious threat, even against an Oblak-led rearguard.

A night that could turn cagey

For all the attacking names on the teamsheets, this could easily become a tight, tactical contest. Simeone will not mind one bit if Anfield turns into a slow, narrow, stop-start arena. He will back his side to frustrate, to break rhythm, and to pounce on Liverpool’s looseness at the back.

Liverpool’s issues in creating clear-cut chances collide with Atlético’s preference for control and compression. At the same time, the visitors have scored seven in their last four league games and add Álvarez to that mix, so they carry enough menace to keep the hosts honest.

The under 2.5 goals line sits at an implied probability of 42.2%, which feels like a tempting entry point given the tactical landscape. A low-scoring, nerve-jangling European night would suit Simeone perfectly.

Liverpool, though, cannot afford to let this campaign start with familiar doubts and familiar scars at home to Atlético. Are Iraola’s men ready to shake off their early-season frailty, or will Anfield once again become a stage for Simeone’s ruthless pragmatism?