Liverpool's Defensive Struggles Open Door for Atlético at Anfield

Anfield under the lights. Same opponents, same stage of the competition, but a very different Liverpool.

Andoni Iraola’s side is still learning on the job, and it shows. Liverpool have leaked four goals in their first two Premier League games, drawing both, and the numbers are a fair reflection of the chaos. The defence is being built on the fly, with Ronald Araújo shunted to right-back because Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni are out. It’s a patchwork back line, and it has played like one.

That is exactly the kind of uncertainty Diego Simeone thrives on.

Atlético smell weakness

Atlético know this ground and they know how to hurt Liverpool here. They won 3-2 at Anfield in 2019/20 and clawed back from 2-0 down on this pitch last season. Simeone’s teams rarely need a second invitation when they sense vulnerability.

The market currently gives Atlético a 46.5% implied chance of avoiding defeat. On what we’ve seen so far from Liverpool under Iraola, that looks on the generous side. Atlético have still never won a league phase game against English opposition, but they don’t have to. A draw is enough to cash this angle.

Bet 1: Draw or Atlético (Double Chance) @ 23/20 with Sky Bet

The logic is simple: Liverpool’s structure isn’t settled, their full-back situation is improvised, and Simeone’s side have a proven record of making this fixture ugly, awkward and long.

Isak sharp, hungry, and suddenly ruthless

At the other end, one Liverpool player has clicked into gear.

Alexander Isak has three goals in three Premier League games this season. At Ipswich last Friday he tore into the game, scoring twice inside nine minutes, with Cody Gakpo laying on all three of his goals across the early weeks. This is not the hesitant forward of last year.

His debut campaign at Anfield brought just four goals in 22 appearances. That version of Isak felt tentative and a touch off the pace. This one looks leaner, faster, and far more decisive in the box.

Atlético’s defence is hardly in perfect order either. They arrive on Merseyside still stinging from a 3-0 defeat at Athletic Bilbao, a performance that left their back line exposed and disjointed. The caveat is Isak’s Champions League record: one goal in 13 appearances. That’s the nagging doubt.

Even so, the implied 47.6% chance of him scoring at any time feels light given his current form and the state of Atlético’s rearguard.

Bet 2: Alexander Isak anytime goalscorer @ 11/10 with Sky Bet

If Liverpool do find a way through Jan Oblak and the Atlético screen, the sharpest knife in their drawer right now is the Swedish No 9.

Liverpool’s creativity problem meets Simeone’s favourite script

For all the talk about Iraola’s high-energy football, Liverpool’s real issue has been chance creation. They sit 19th in the Premier League for big chances created: four in three games. Brighton, by contrast, have carved out 15 in the same span.

That is a startling return for a squad with this level of attacking talent.

Atlético are built to exploit that kind of stutter. Pablo Barrios and Morten Hjulmand will sit in front of the defence, closing off the pockets Florian Wirtz loves to drift into. Behind them, Oblak remains a calming, reliable last line.

Simeone will not mind if this turns into a slow, cramped contest. In fact, he’ll welcome it. Narrow corridors, long pauses, set-piece battles – that’s his territory. And while Atlético have scored seven in their last four league matches and regain an extra spark with Julian Alvarez expected to return to the attack, the shape of this game still leans towards a tight scoreline rather than a shootout.

With the under 2.5 goals line carrying an implied probability of 42.2%, there is value in backing a cagey night.

Bet 3: Under 2.5 goals @ 11/8 with Sky Bet

A low-scoring grind suits Simeone and exposes Liverpool’s ongoing struggle to consistently open teams up.

Form, stakes and a familiar edge

Liverpool have taken five points from their opening three league fixtures, conceding twice in each of their first two before a more controlled 2-0 win at Ipswich. Isak’s brace at Portman Road hinted at a team starting to find some rhythm, but Iraola’s project is clearly unfinished.

Injuries and registration issues haven’t helped. Hugo Ekitike, Bradley and Leoni remain unavailable, while Federico Chiesa and Wataru Endo were not registered for Champions League duty. That strips depth from both ends of the pitch and limits Iraola’s options if the game tightens.

Atlético, for their part, come in off a bruising 3-0 loss at Bilbao but still sit sixth in La Liga with seven points from four games. Simeone is poised to hand Alvarez his first start of the season, a significant boost in attacking quality, while Cristian Romero is pushing for his first start since joining the club. Alexander Sorloth (thigh) and Arnau Ortiz (suspended) are out, trimming the forward line but not the edge.

The Argentine coach knows he has a window here: a Liverpool side still under construction, a defence still learning each other’s movements, and a crowd that can turn anxious if the early storm doesn’t bring a goal.

Predicted lineups and scoreline

Expected Liverpool XI: Alisson; Kerkez, Araújo, Jacquet, van Dijk; Szoboszlai, Mac Allister, Barcola; Wirtz, Gakpo, Isak

Expected Atlético XI: Oblak; Llorente, Romero, Hancko, Grimaldo; Giuliano Simeone, Barrios, Hjulmand, Lookman; Baena, Álvarez

Score prediction: Liverpool 1-1 Atlético Madrid

Goalscorers prediction: Liverpool – Isak; Atlético Madrid – Álvarez

Last season, Liverpool edged this Matchday 1 fixture 3-2. This time, with Iraola still piecing his side together and Simeone ready to pounce on any crack in the structure, the margins look thinner, the game tighter, and the question sharper: can Liverpool’s new era handle Atlético’s old, ruthless habits when the pressure hits?