Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Portland Thorns W welcome Chicago Red Stars W to Providence Park on 13 September 2026 in NWSL Women Group Stage action, with the two clubs arriving from very different ends of the table. Portland sit 6th with 38 points from 23 matches and are firmly in the playoff conversation, while Chicago are bottom in 16th on just 16 points, fighting to salvage pride and momentum.

For Portland, this home fixture is about consolidating a strong campaign and sharpening up ahead of the business end of the season. They have been excellent at Providence Park, combining one of the league’s most dangerous attacks with a tight home defence. Chicago, by contrast, come in with the worst goal difference in the division and a fragile back line that has struggled all year.

With such a gulf in form and quality, many bettors and fans will be looking at this clash for NWSL Women predictions, Portland Thorns vs Chicago Red Stars tips, and value angles in the goals markets. The numbers strongly favour the hosts, but head-to-head history suggests Chicago can occasionally spring a surprise if Portland switch off.

Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W Key Stats

• Portland Thorns W are 6th with 38 points, scoring 37 and conceding 32 across 23 matches, while Chicago Red Stars W are 16th with 16 points, scoring 13 and conceding 53.
• In their most recent meeting on 3 May 2026, Portland Thorns W won 2-0 away at Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium in NWSL Women Group Stage action.
• Season statistics show Portland averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, compared to Chicago’s 0.6 scored and 2.3 conceded.

Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 6 vs 16
• Points: 38 vs 16
• Goals For: 37 vs 13
• Goals Against: 32 vs 53
• Clean Sheets: 9 vs 3

The standings underline just how far apart these sides are. Portland’s 11 wins and +5 goal difference from 23 matches reflect a balanced, competitive side capable of both scoring and managing games. Their home record is particularly strong: 7 wins, 3 draws and just 1 defeat at Providence Park, with 20 goals scored and only 7 conceded.

Chicago, by contrast, have endured a brutal campaign. With 5 wins and 17 losses, their -40 goal difference is by far the worst in the league. Away from home they have lost 11 of 12, scoring just 3 times and conceding 31. Across the season they average only 0.6 goals per match and concede 2.3, a combination that makes any trip to a top-half side extremely daunting.

Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W Key Matchups

S. Smith vs Chicago Red Stars W back line

S. Smith has been one of the standout attackers in NWSL Women 2026. For Portland, she has 10 goals and 1 assist in 23 appearances, with 37 shots on target from 60 attempts and a solid 7.2 average rating. She also contributes 27 key passes and has converted 3 penalties from 3, underlining her reliability in decisive moments.

Up against a Chicago defence that has conceded 53 goals in 23 matches and allows 2.6 goals per game away from home, Smith’s movement and volume of shots make her a constant threat. Her ability to both run in behind and shoot from varied positions should stretch a back line that has already suffered heavy defeats, including 6-1 and 6-0 losses this season.

P. Tordin vs Chicago midfield shield

P. Tordin is another key weapon for Portland. Listed as an attacker/midfielder, she has 6 goals and 7 assists in 23 appearances, with 36 key passes and a 7.07 rating. Her 385 completed passes at 71% accuracy, combined with 50 dribble attempts and 22 successful, show how she links midfield and attack while regularly creating chances.

Chicago’s midfield has struggled to protect its defence, with the team conceding heavily in the 46–60 and 61–75 minute windows. Tordin’s ability to find pockets between the lines and feed runners like Smith and O. Moultrie could be decisive, especially as Chicago average just 0.3 goals scored away and often have to chase games, leaving more space for creators.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These two clubs have met regularly in recent NWSL Women seasons, with Portland generally having the upper hand but Chicago occasionally producing big away results. Recent clashes have often been open, with goals at both ends and several multi-goal wins for the Thorns.

• 03 May 2026: Chicago Red Stars W 0-2 Portland Thorns W (NWSL Women)
• 14 September 2025: Chicago Red Stars W 1-1 Portland Thorns W (NWSL Women)
• 22 June 2025: Portland Thorns W 1-0 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women)
• 14 September 2024: Portland Thorns W 0-1 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women)
• 27 April 2024: Chicago Red Stars W 0-2 Portland Thorns W (NWSL Women)

Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W Prediction

All indicators point strongly towards a Portland home win. Recent comparison metrics heavily favour the Thorns in form, attack and defence, and the Poisson-based index is overwhelmingly tilted to the hosts. The prediction model assigns Portland a 50% chance of victory, with a 50% chance of a draw and effectively no probability given to a Chicago win.

Portland’s home defensive record (0.6 goals conceded per match) stacks up impressively against a Chicago attack that has failed to score in 16 of 23 matches and averages just 0.3 goals on the road. At the other end, Portland’s 1.8 goals per home game face a defence that has already shipped 31 away goals. Head-to-head, Portland have also won convincingly in several recent meetings, including 2-0 away in May 2026.

Given the goals thresholds in the prediction data, a conservative scoreline is appropriate. Portland should control territory and chances, while Chicago may struggle to create clear openings.

Predicted Score: Portland Thorns W 2-0 Chicago Red Stars W

Portland Thorns W Recent Form

Portland’s recent run has been strong, with a pattern of frequent wins and only occasional setbacks. Their broader tournament form string features multiple winning streaks of up to three matches and only short losing spells, reflecting consistency at a high level. At home in particular, they have been difficult to beat, combining clean sheets with regular scoring.

Chicago Red Stars W Recent Form

Chicago’s recent form has been poor. Their latest five-match snapshot shows only one win and four defeats, with 4 goals scored and 20 conceded. Over the wider run of results, they have suffered several sequences of three or more straight losses, and their defensive numbers indicate they are often out of games early, especially after half-time.

Portland Thorns W Possible Starting Lineup

GK: M. Arnold or M. Messner; Defenders: M. Müller, S. Hiatt, J. Perry, R. Reyes, M. Vignola, I. Obaze; Midfielders: J. Fleming, O. Moultrie, C. Bogere, P. Tordin, Mallie McKenzie, N. Nijstad, S. Harvey, Renee Lyles, R. Turner, M. Weaver; Forwards/Attackers: S. Smith, D. Castellanos, C. Hanks, V. Loboa, M. Padelski.

Portland have depth across the pitch, particularly in attacking areas where S. Smith, P. Tordin, O. Moultrie and D. Castellanos offer multiple goal threats. Defensively, players like J. Perry and R. Reyes bring aggression and aerial presence, though Perry’s card record (5 yellows, 1 red) suggests a risk of disciplinary issues. The Thorns have frequently used a 4-2-3-1 structure this season, which suits their blend of creators and finishers.

Chicago Red Stars W Possible Starting Lineup

GK: A. Naeher or K. Lund; Defenders: S. Staab, Leila Ouahabi, A. Farmer, T. Malham, Elise Evans; Midfielders: J. Grosso, Maitane López, B. Pinto, B. Franklin, A. Gasper, M. Hayashi, T. E. Dellarose, E. Egizii; Forwards/Attackers: M. Swanson, J. Huitema, M. Alozie, S. Charley, J. Bike, R. Gareis, Nádia Gomes, Jameese Joseph, M. Johnson.

Chicago have a mix of experienced internationals and younger talents but have struggled to find a settled, effective shape. They have experimented with several formations, including 4-2-3-1, 4-1-4-1 and 4-3-3, without solving their defensive frailties or lack of cutting edge in attack. Expect a cautious setup here, with an emphasis on compactness and counter-attacks through pacey forwards like M. Swanson and J. Huitema.

Portland Thorns W Team News

No significant absences reported.

Chicago Red Stars W Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Portland Thorns W:

• None reported.

Chicago Red Stars W:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W

Exactly 3 distinct betting angles stand out from this matchup:

• Result Tip: Back Portland Thorns W to win. The prediction model gives Portland a 50% win chance versus 50% for the draw and 0% for Chicago, while the market is even more bullish. Home odds range from 1.17 to 1.24, implying an approximate 80.6%–85.5% chance of a Thorns victory. Given Portland’s dominant home record and Chicago’s disastrous away form, the hosts are justifiably heavy favourites.
• Goals Tip: Over 2.5 total goals. Portland’s matches feature an average of 3.0 goals per game (1.6 for, 1.4 against), and Chicago’s games average 2.9 (0.6 for, 2.3 against). Chicago have conceded 31 goals in 12 away matches, while Portland score 1.8 per home game. With such defensive vulnerability on the Chicago side and multiple attacking threats for Portland, an overs angle is well supported, especially as many H2H meetings have produced 3+ goals.
• Value Tip: S. Smith to score anytime (player markets where available). Smith has 10 goals in 23 appearances and leads Portland’s attack in both volume and quality of chances, with 37 shots on target and 3 successful penalties. Up against a Chicago defence conceding heavily, particularly after the break, backing Smith in goalscorer markets offers a strong statistical edge relative to likely prices.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.