Sunderland vs Chelsea Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Sunderland welcome Chelsea to the Stadium of Light on 24 May 2026 in the final round of the Premier League regular season. With only a point separating the sides before kick-off, this clash has the feel of a straight shootout for mid-table supremacy and, in Chelsea’s case, the chance to cement their place in the European qualification picture.

Sunderland arrive in 10th place on 51 points, having scored 40 and conceded 47 across 37 matches. For a promoted or rebuilding side, a solid mid-table finish is already assured, but a home win here would see them leapfrog Chelsea and underline the Stadium of Light’s growing reputation as a difficult away day. Chelsea, in 8th with 52 points, have scored 57 and conceded 50, and currently sit in the “Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)” zone. Avoiding defeat would likely be enough to protect that European spot, making this a high-stakes afternoon for the visitors.

From a betting and prediction perspective, Sunderland vs Chelsea is the archetypal late-season Premier League game: one team playing with relative freedom, the other under pressure to secure Europe. Stats suggest a tight contest, with the prediction markets leaning slightly towards Chelsea on a win-or-draw basis, but Sunderland’s home numbers and recent head-to-head success in London keep this far from a formality.

Sunderland vs Chelsea Key Stats

• Sunderland sit 10th with 51 points from 37 games (40 scored, 47 conceded), while Chelsea are 8th with 52 points, 57 scored and 50 conceded.
• The most recent meeting on 25 October 2025 at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League ended Chelsea 1-2 Sunderland.
• Sunderland average 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game this league campaign, while Chelsea average 1.5 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Sunderland vs Chelsea — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 10 vs 8
• Points: 51 vs 52
• Goals For: 40 vs 57
• Goals Against: 47 vs 50
• Clean Sheets: Sunderland 11 vs Chelsea 9

The league table underlines just how finely balanced this fixture is. Sunderland’s 51 points and negative goal difference of -7 reflect a side that has been competitive but often involved in tight, low-scoring games. Their 40 goals from 37 matches (1.1 per game) and 47 conceded (1.3 per game) point to a pragmatic approach, with a strong base at home: 8 wins, 6 draws and only 4 defeats at the Stadium of Light, scoring 23 and conceding 19.

Chelsea’s profile is more volatile. With 57 goals scored (1.5 per game) and 50 conceded (1.4 per game), they have been more expansive but less controlled. Their away record is respectable — 7 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, with 31 scored and 25 conceded — but not dominant. Importantly, Chelsea’s current 8th place comes with the label “Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)”, meaning they are already in the European qualification zone and must protect that status. Sunderland, two places and one point behind, can’t reach Europe but can land a statement top-half finish by overtaking Chelsea on the final day.

Sunderland vs Chelsea Key Matchups

E. Le Fée vs Joã​o Pedro

Enzo Jérémy Le Fée has been Sunderland’s creative hub from midfield. Across 35 Premier League appearances (32 starts, 2,855 minutes), he has produced 5 goals and 6 assists, backed by 1,073 completed passes at 81% accuracy and 49 key passes. His work rate is outstanding: 85 tackles, 11 blocks and 27 interceptions show how much he contributes out of possession, while 45 dribble attempts (13 successful) and 36 fouls drawn underline his ability to carry the ball and win set-pieces.

For Chelsea, Joã​o Pedro is the headline attacking threat. In 34 appearances (30 starts, 2,584 minutes), he has 15 goals and 5 assists, with 50 shots (28 on target) and 71 dribble attempts (37 successful). He also draws fouls at a high rate (54) and has won 3 penalties, making him a constant danger between the lines. Sunderland’s ability to limit service into Joã​o Pedro will hinge on Le Fée’s defensive discipline and ball retention; if Le Fée can dictate tempo and keep Sunderland higher up the pitch, Joã​o Pedro’s influence may be reduced.

G. Xhaka vs E. Fernández

Granit Xhaka offers Sunderland control and bite in midfield. In 33 appearances (31 starts, 2,813 minutes), he has 1 goal and 6 assists, with 1,755 passes at 83% accuracy and 34 key passes. Defensively, 50 tackles, 20 blocks and 29 interceptions show his importance in screening the back line. His 7 yellow cards also indicate he plays on the edge, which could be a factor against Chelsea’s mobile midfield.

Enzo Jeremías Fernández is Chelsea’s engine. Over 35 appearances (34 starts, 3,031 minutes), he has 10 goals and 4 assists, with 52 shots (31 on target). His passing numbers are elite: 1,983 passes at 86% accuracy and 67 key passes, plus 52 tackles and 21 interceptions. He has picked up 9 yellow cards, reflecting an aggressive style. The Xhaka vs Fernández battle will be central to territory and chance creation; whoever controls this duel is likely to tilt the match in their team’s favour.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

The recent head-to-head record between Sunderland and Chelsea is surprisingly competitive, with Sunderland more than holding their own in big fixtures. The last ten meetings span league and cup, and include notable away wins for the Black Cats at Stamford Bridge.

• 25 October 2025: Chelsea 1-2 Sunderland (Premier League)
• 21 May 2017: Chelsea 5-1 Sunderland (Premier League)
• 14 December 2016: Sunderland 0-1 Chelsea (Premier League)
• 7 May 2016: Sunderland 3-2 Chelsea (Premier League)
• 19 December 2015: Chelsea 3-1 Sunderland (Premier League)

Sunderland vs Chelsea Prediction

Analysis points to a finely poised contest. Sunderland’s home record, 11 clean sheets overall and their recent win at Stamford Bridge suggest they are more than capable of frustrating Chelsea. Their league form string of WDDLL is mixed, but the underlying defensive numbers at home are solid. Chelsea’s form of WDLLL is worrying, with just one win in their last five league games and only 4 goals scored in that stretch according to recent metrics.

Prediction models give Chelsea and the draw equal weight at 45% each, with Sunderland only 10%. The advice leans strongly towards “Double chance: draw or Chelsea”, reflecting Chelsea’s superior attacking output over the season and their need to secure European qualification. However, with both teams’ goals against averages hovering around 1.3–1.4 per game and no clear edge in defensive solidity, this feels more like a cagey, low-scoring encounter than a Chelsea rout. Expect Sunderland to sit compact, Chelsea to have more of the ball, and chances to be at a premium.

Predicted Score: Sunderland 1-1 Chelsea

Sunderland League Form

WDDLL

Chelsea League Form

WDLLL

Sunderland Possible Starting Lineup

Ellborg; O. Alderete, D. Ballard, L. Geertruida, Reinildo; G. Xhaka, T. Hume; E. Le Fée, C. Rigg, W. Isidor; B. Brobbey.

Sunderland have predominantly used a 4-2-3-1 shape this season, and their squad profile fits that structure. D. Ballard and Reinildo bring physicality and aerial presence at the back, while T. Hume and G. Xhaka offer aggression and ball progression in midfield. E. Le Fée is the natural No.10, linking midfield to attack, with wide runners like W. Isidor stretching the play and a central striker such as B. Brobbey providing a focal point. With 11 clean sheets and a tendency to keep games tight, expect Sunderland to prioritise defensive organisation and quick transitions rather than an expansive approach.

Chelsea Possible Starting Lineup

Robert Sánchez; R. James, T. Chalobah, L. Colwill, Marc Cucurella; M. Caicedo, E. Fernández; C. Palmer, Joã​o Pedro, A. Garnacho; L. Delap.

Chelsea have leaned heavily on a 4-2-3-1 system, and the personnel listed reflect their statistical leaders. Robert Sánchez has played 34 times in goal, while T. Chalobah and Marc Cucurella are regulars in the back line. In midfield, M. Caicedo and E. Fernández provide a high-volume passing and tackling platform: Caicedo with 1,996 passes at 91% accuracy and 87 tackles, Fernández with 1,983 passes at 86% and 52 tackles. Further forward, Joã​o Pedro is the main goal threat, supported by creative outlets like C. Palmer and A. Garnacho. This setup should give Chelsea territorial dominance, but their 50 goals conceded suggest they can still be exposed in defensive transitions.

Sunderland Team News

No significant absences reported.

Chelsea Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Sunderland:

• None reported.

Chelsea:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Sunderland vs Chelsea

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back Chelsea in the double chance (draw or away win). Predictions give Sunderland only 10% compared to 45% for both Chelsea and the draw, and Chelsea’s season-long attacking numbers (57 goals, 1.5 per game) are stronger. For a straight away win, 1xBet offer around 2.05 on Chelsea, while Pinnacle are at 2.01 and Bet365 at 2.00.
• Goals Tip: Under 2.5 goals looks attractive. Sunderland average 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded, Chelsea 1.5 scored and 1.4 conceded, and Sunderland’s under/over profile shows only 5 matches over 2.5 goals out of 37. With the prediction advice centred on a tight draw or narrow Chelsea edge, a low-scoring game fits the statistical pattern. Use the match winner odds to structure a cautious same-game combo, but stick to unders on the goals line.
• Value Tip: Joã​o Pedro to score or register a goal contribution. He has 15 goals and 5 assists in 34 appearances, with 28 shots on target and 37 successful dribbles, plus 3 penalties won. His involvement in Chelsea’s attacking output is massive, and in a match where Chelsea need a result, he is the likeliest difference-maker. Combine a Joã​o Pedro goal with a Chelsea win at prices built around away odds in the 1.95–2.05 range from firms like Bet365, Unibet and 1xBet for a higher-value builder.

How to Watch Sunderland vs Chelsea

Broadcast coverage varies by region. General guide:

• Spain: Movistar LaLiga
• UK: Premier Sports
• Australia: beIN Sports
• India: FanCode
• MENA: beIN Sports
• South America: ESPN / Disney+
• Africa: SuperSport

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.